Introduction

Shanie 0:04

Hello and welcome to Israel Policy Pod. I'm your host, Shani Reichman, the Director of Strategic Initiatives and IPF at Israel Policy Forum, based in New York City. And I'm joined by Neri Zilber, a journalist based in Tel Aviv and a policy advisor with Israel Policy Forum, and also your regular host on this podcast when it's not hosted by me. How's it going, Neri?

Neri 0:23

Hi, Shani. Uh, it's great to see you and be with you once again. Last time we did this was three months ago in early February. So we're long overdue for a checkup, check-in, uh, vibes. Want to hear about the vibes on on your side of the world. Uh, and I'll do my best to update you on what's happening on my side of the world.

Shanie 0:44

Aaron Powell Yeah. I think your vibes in Israel are on average going to be a little bit higher than they were when we last spoke. That's what I'm hoping, at least.

Neri 0:52

Aaron Powell Don't be so sure. Oh no.

Shanie 0:55

Okay.

Neri 0:55

The mood, the mood here isn't uh you know, uh what did they say? It's not on top form. Everyone, well, I'm sure we'll get into it, but everyone's kind of waiting for another round with Iran. People are kind of uh wondering what it was all for the last uh, well, two months.

Shanie 1:11

Two plus same guys, same.

Neri 1:14

Yeah.

Shanie 1:15

We'll we'll talk.

Neri 1:16

Yeah, we can we can talk about it. But uh yeah, I I don't know why anyone has any reason to think that the vibes here are better, other than the fact that missiles have stopped uh coming in.

Shanie 1:25

That's what I meant. Last time you recorded, you were like in and out of bomb shelters. How is this not better? It's because you're anticipating the next time you'll do that.

Neri 1:33

Yeah. Uh we're anticipating and kind of waiting is is almost as bad as kind of being in it, almost as bad as being in it. But uh no, obviously it's much better that you're not kind of living your life from one siren to the next and in and out of bomb shelters. So everything's open, people are out on the streets. I mean, it's uh it's nice. Also, kind of summer just started. So uh belated starts the summer here on the eastern Mediterranean. So all that very, very positive. But again, like, okay, what is tomorrow or next week going to uh going to bring?

President Trump's Impasse With Iran

Shanie 2:06

Yeah. So we'll talk Iran, we'll also talk a little bit of Lebanon-Israel diplomatic talks. We'll cover Netzanyahou's CBS interview, which probably most of our listeners, not me, but most of our listeners watched entirely, um, and cover some of the domestic politics. And then we'll take it back to the states because there's a lot of research coming out, a lot of survey data around Americans, Americans in general and American Jews and how they are feeling about this war and Israel at large. So we'll talk a little bit about that as well. But let's start with Iran because we've already begun to get into it. Uh, Trump said that the ceasefire with Iran is on life support. After Tehran submitted to them, this is a real quote somehow, a garbage proposal. Um, and now he's considering the escorting of ships in Hormuz, which I haven't heard a lot of analysts say is an effective strategy. But I'm curious to hear from you what's actually going on, because all I have is like truth social quotes from Trump.

Neri 3:03

Well, that's uh what we all have uh to go off of uh on a daily basis, believe me. Look, um I've talked about it every week uh for weeks now uh on the podcast and off the podcast, talked about it with a safore Ion at the top of last week's show, and which was primarily about Lebanon, but we had to talk about Iran. Uh look, nobody knows what will happen uh to kind of get right down to it. Nobody knows what will happen, but the situation is not is not great. And I'll talk about a kind of big picture and then from um where I'm sitting here here in Israel. Look, Trump is stuck. And the fact that he keeps tweeting, like you said, or truthing every every day, uh, and and also just to his credit talking to the press every day. But that he's issuing these constant daily threats uh about what he thinks about the negotiations with Iran, i.e., uh the offer he got recently this week was totally unacceptable and, like you said, garbage in his words. Um, and also issuing these these threats about uh what he's um liable to do uh and yet doesn't actually follow through on either a deal or further military action. Um it just degrades his own credibility, it degrades America's credibility and America's deterrence, and it reinforces the notion. Um it was there kind of what, uh uh a month ago when there was the the initial ceasefire, right? That uh while Iran may not have won the war, it certainly didn't lose. But now there's a growing sense that Iran may have may have actually come ahead somehow, despite what, five weeks of heavy, heavy U.S. and Israeli bombardment. And again, there are articles that have come out, various kind of serious analysts um putting it out there that Iran may have taken a heavy blow, right? Uh definitely economically, definitely to its defense industrial base, to its actual military power, but that strategically uh it's in a more advantageous position than on what February 27, 2026, the day before the bombing started, uh, because it controls the Strait of Hormuz.

Shanie 5:11

Aaron Powell Which it always did, but it never it never kind of leveraged that in the way that we're seeing it now.

Neri 5:15

Aaron Powell It was always a latent threat, which was never actually put into practice by Iran, not really. Um, maybe for a brief period in the late 80s. Uh but back then the U.S. Navy actually embarked on an operation to escort commercial shipping uh in and out of the Strait of Hormuz. Now, this is all kind of um prelude to the bottom line, my in my own opinion. The Strait of Hormuz is Donald Trump's main problem. And the fact that this was not dealt with in the beginning of the war, in the middle of the war, definitely after the ceasefire, and definitely last week when he announced this kind of short-lived, ill-fated Project Freedom that lasted 36 hours to reopen the Strait of Hormuz via the U.S. Navy and Central Command. Um, that also further degrades the U.S. position. It further degrades Trump's negotiating leverage at the talks, in the talks. And uh the strait is still closed. So um we can talk about kind of gaps. Again, we're talking big picture now. We can talk about the gaps in the U.S. position and the Iranian position about the nuclear program and the highly interesting uranium. We can talk about likely gaps between what Iran expects in terms of sanctions, relief, and money, and what Trump may or may not be willing to give them. Um, Bibi Netanyahu, again, in the 60 Minutes interview and otherwise, you know, still talking about Iran's ballistic missile arsenal, its support for various proxy terrorist groups across the region. Those are now, I think, not even part of the negotiations. But to my mind, the crux of the matter is that Iran is still holding the global economy hostage via the Strait of Hormuz. Trump has not reopened the strait, despite the fact that for decades now, the U.S. was essentially the guarantor of free and open shipping lanes, not only in the Gulf but around the world. And Iran, like you said, you know, for the first time actually attempted to close the strait. It did close the strait. And I'm left with only one conclusion. Trump is essentially too scared to try to force the strait open via military means. He's he's too afraid of a U.S. naval vessel getting hit by an Iranian surface-to-sea cruise missile, um, and that being the legacy of this war. And until either he finds a military solution or he finds more flexibility in the talks, Iran is still holding the global economy hostage, with all that it means, you know, politically in America, economically around the world, I mean, on and on, kind of second, third, fourth order repercussions. So that's where we are. Um and then final point, kind of in terms of big picture. All that being said, uh Trump, as we know, is going to China for a very important summit. How shall I put this? I assume he may try to get the Chinese on board to apply their own leverage on Iran to get them to move. Um and failing that, I assume that he'll in his own mind he'll be left with only one option, which is to escalate to try to force better terms on Iran. Uh will that work? I I don't know. I I I say I hope it works, but I'm skeptical, as are many other people. But I assume this is the likeliest course of action, uh, unfortunately.

Shanie 8:41

Aaron Powell We'll talk about this later when we discuss how Americans are perceiving this war, but I I think that the last few minutes of you you talking about it really drove it home for me that now the top of the list of achievements for this war for Donald Trump is reopening the Straits of Hormuz, right? It's not regime change. I mean, I don't even hear about regime change anymore. It's a little bit about the nuclear program. I don't hear it all about ballistic missiles. It's about solving a problem that did not exist before this war. And I think that's what, and that's what the discourse is all the time in America, because that's like the most, that's the primary issue that Americans now care about, obviously, because it directly impacts our economy. And they're like, wait, but what? I didn't even hear about this place before. Like all of a sudden, this is a problem that we need to be solving. Oh, right, because this problem was created as a result of this war. Again, not to downplay any of the successes, especially on the nuclear front. Um, but I I well, whatever. We'll talk about a little bit later. But as I'm having this conversation with you, that's all I'm hearing is like this focus on an issue that seemingly didn't even exist before.

Neri 9:44

I mean, yeah, it's it's true. Uh the straits were open uh before the war, and now they are they are not open. Um and in fairness, you know, Trump uh finally belatedly instituted his own blockade of Iran and Iranian ports. So again, that is likely having an impact on Iran, but um Iran has a lot less to lose for itself as one country versus the entire globe and the entire global economy and especially the U.S. economy. So again, the asymmetry is is there, it's built in. Uh look, the the issue of the Strait of Hormuz, um, like I said, is is the most important point. Um, but in Donald Trump's mind and also just kind of what he's projecting publicly, it's all about the nuclear file. It's all about the nuclear program. When you hear him speak, all he says is, well, Iran can never have a nuclear weapon. Iran can never have a nuclear weapon. And that's, I think, the primary goal, arguably, for Trump. I think it's now the sole goal in terms of the kind of pre-war objectives leaving inside the strait. But if we look at it kind of um in terms of a timeline, right? The nuclear issue and even the talks themselves would not be kind of a more immediate concern, right, in order to resolve them if it weren't for the strait being closed. In other words, you know, they they don't agree on moving out the highly enriched uranium stockpile, the 400 kilos, whatever, right? Um that's an acute issue right now to solve right now. Um it's important, but you can always keep an eye on that highly enriched uranium stockpile. You can always keep an eye on Iran's nuclear facilities. You can always kind of hit them again if they make a move to either reconstitute them or try to move the stockpile. But that's not the more acute issue right now. The more acute issue is that Trump needs the straight-of-horm moves to be reopened. Um, and that's why he, you know, you kind of need a resolution to this either one way or another, sooner rather than later. Um that's my that's my contention. Trump is at least posturing outwardly that he has all the time in the world. He doesn't seem to be in any rush. So kind of one day leads to the next, one week leads to the next, you know, he's going to China. Um but at a certain point I imagine the economic indicators will will catch up with him. I mean, before we started recording, I saw that uh kind of inflation in America is now over 3%. Um that undid Donald Trump's predecessor as president, right? Uh Joe Biden. Um, gas prices going into the summer, um, a major domestic issue. Uh the fact that there are places in Asia or Europe that are kind of cutting down work weeks because they're trying to ration energy, um, and on and on. So again, you you could kind of try to wait out the Iranians uh on in terms of an agreement on the nuclear file, an agreement on a whole bunch of other things, if it weren't for the strait being closed. Um that's that's my my contention.

Shanie 12:47

Yeah, as as a reminder, there this is a long ways off, but there are midterm elections in the United States in November.

Neri 12:54

So Yeah.

Shanie 12:56

And and and I'll add America as a democracy has to be a lot more receptive to what their population wants. Iran as a authoritarian theocracy has shown that they don't need to care what their population thinks. They're continuing on with executions and mass arrests throughout this entire war. They're continuing with internet blackouts throughout this war. I mean, they are they have demonstrated that they do not and do not feel any need to care about what their population actually wants. And so if the economy hurts their people, okay. So it hurts their people. Like we're a long, they're a long-term thinking regime. They I'm sure it hurts them too, but it's very different when you're an American leader who has an election coming up, an election for all of your folks coming up.

Neri 13:39

And um I mean, we may talk about this later on, but this war wasn't necessarily all that popular in the beginning. Uh I'm not sure uh it's any more popular now.

Shanie 13:51

It's not getting more popular.

Neri 13:53

It's not getting more popular. And um, you know, if you if you want to talk about the mood in Israel and how things are viewed in Israel, there's there's a lot of frustration uh here at the, shall we say, inconclusive outcome of this war. The Israeli public was promised that many things had been taken care of even last summer during the 12-day war, right? And that proved uh not to be accurate, right? Then Yao came out and said this was a um uh a victory for generations to come. We removed two existential threats from you, uh the Israeli people, my subjects. I'm kidding, but only slightly. Uh the the nuclear, the nuclear threat and the ballistic missile threat. That was not even 12 months ago, right? Uh and then now you had you needed, according to both the Israeli Prime Minister and the American president, another round. You combine forces, the U.S. and the Israeli military, fighting a war together for the first time ever, right? Unprecedented, historic, pick your adjective, uh five weeks intense, intense military campaign. Iran seemed to weather, weather it, right? Um, you know, the regime is still intact. Uh they are still themselves tweeting out on a daily basis all kinds of um we can't say what I want to say, but like, you know, like the kids, like the kids do. They're they're kind of uh trolling the U.S. President and and you know, the people who who came after them. Uh and they are in no position or inclination to kind of back down. Because I again, in their mind, they've weathered the worst of it. Not only the actual five weeks of war, but the actual quote-unquote military option that had always been threatened against the Islamic Republic if they did not come to the table and negotiate in earnest over their nuclear program. And and yet here they are, on the other side of a war, still negotiating over their nuclear program. So there's a lot of frustration here here in Israel. Um the caveat is that, right, it's it's not like final grades, it's um it's incomplete grades. And uh the hope here, at least on some people, kind of incoming missiles notwithstanding, uh, is that Trump kind of saves Netanyahu and saves Israel from what would be, if not a defeat, then a kind of a major climb down from what the objectives were at the beginning of the war. Uh and you know, the Iranians don't agree to terms with Trump. And Trump, like I said, feels a need to uh to escalate further. Um, will that resolve the the issue? Probably not. But I think a lot of people here uh would feel a lot better if the war was uh was resumed uh with Iran one way or the other. So that's that's the the mood here, unfortunately.

Shanie 16:38

Aaron Powell Before the Straits of Hormuz, where even a thing that anybody talked about, Lebanon, Hezbollah and Lebanon was really one of uh Iran's major leverage points when it came to Israel. And I think it's pretty clear that one of the primary ways that Israel can lower that leverage point is not as not just by military action, but also diplomacy. And so we're we're seeing, I think it's next week, um, Lebanon and Israel.

Neri 17:02

No, no, it's this week? Later this week, yeah. It's like the third round.

Shanie 17:05

I must have read that last week, are coming to Washington uh for high-level talks. I think the first time they're including military in these conversations. Um, we'll have conversations around disarming Hezbollah, what that means. Well, the Israeli side has said that's what the conversation is going to be about. I'm not sure what the Lebanese side thinks it's going to be about. I'm only reasoning reading the Israeli side of the news, of course. Um, but I do think that's really exciting. I think that if we were to see um some kind of normalization between Israel and Lebanon, um that's obviously a game changer compared to normalization with Gulf countries that weren't really at war with Israel. This is a country that has, you know, has blunted parliament. So you are looking at me with with so much skepticism right now. So tell me what you're thinking.

Neri 17:48

I'm a bit skeptical. Look, the talks in and of themselves, they're it's a positive development, right? It's always um important to talk, especially to your ostensible enemies, even though I think most Lebanese and most Israelis don't uh don't disagree on much, shall we say, and don't have that many kind of actual uh conflicting positions on things. But I think look, the diplomacy is um a brainchild of the Trump administration. And uh I'll put this, I'll put this as gently as I can. The Trump administration's other diplomatic initiatives uh across the region are are still inch, uh kind of unformed, more rhetoric in terms of what they want to achieve, as opposed to actually substantive steps towards achieving those goals. Um, see Gaza, well, Iran, et cetera, et cetera.

Shanie 18:40

So But they got the Abraham Accords in the first term, I'm just saying. Look, it's gonna be Abraham Accords 2.0.

Neri 18:47

Yeah, well, let me uh let me let me get into the issues with that. Uh look, you know, to the Trump people's credit, right? Um, and it's usually the same people that I'm not going to name, but yes, they got the Abraham Accords. Yes, they got the ceasefire in Gaza. And that's all to their credit, and that's fine. But um, this is uh, you know, as we like to talk about on this podcast, I'm pretty sure we've mentioned before, you know, time is linear, so time moves forward. Uh and, you know, even the even the ceasefire deal in Gaza is kind of fretting at the at the seams. And there's more of a likelihood of Israel trying to at least restart the war against Hamas and Gaza than um this kind of achievement of a diplomatic breakthrough in the Gaza talks and getting Hamas disarm and moving forward with um the so-called phase two of the ceasefire deal. So again, we have to kind of be clear-eyed about what's happening and and what's not happening. And so, yes, there is a diplomatic track with regard to Lebanon and Israel, and that's that's very good. I think the Lebanese government and the Israeli government have very different perspectives and objectives with regard to these negotiations. I think Lebanon is just trying to kind of stop the Israeli strikes and get the IDF out of Southern Lebanon. Um the Israeli government, as you mentioned, wants Hezbollah disarmed and wants the Lebanese government and military to do a lot more. And so is there kind of a Venn diagram to get both sides at least nearer each other? Yes. Um, but then you kind of get to the uh more skeptical analysis, which is you know, Lebanon at this point is uh connected to the Iran front, much to the chagrin of uh Netanyahu and and his government, who uh took great great pride in the fact that they kind of separated the two fronts uh until Donald Trump uh fused the two fronts, by the way, at Iran's behest. Um I've said this before on the podcast. I've reported it in the newspaper as well. Uh so this was a major L, uh a major loss for Israel in terms of the kind of post-Iran ceasefire landscape. Um the US is still allowing the IDF to strike Hezbollah positions, but only in southern Lebanon. And this is leading to even more frustration inside Israel that, hey, we're we're fighting Lebanon, but with one hand tied behind our back, um, as I got into in depth with Asaf Orion in last week's episode. Um and even more than that, uh you have a situation now in southern Lebanon where you have the IDF in this kind of new so-called security zone, which extends basically from the Israeli border north into Lebanon about 10 kilometers or so. Uh, but every day we're getting reports of IDF either injured or in some cases killed, primarily by these kind of Hezbollah explosive drones, um, very similar to the ones used in the Ukraine-Russia war. And the IDF is scrambling for a solution. So every day, I mean, this might sound kind of surprising maybe to listeners that are not in Israel. The the top story for days now in the Israeli media uh is not the Iran war or Iran negotiations. It's usually the Lebanon front and the injuries, and in some cases early this week, the the death, the tragic death of a 47 year old reservist. Um, by the way, killed by a Hezbollah explosive drone kind of on the Israeli side of the Israel-Lebanon border. Right? A drone came down and and and struck him uh tragically. And the fact that the IDF is again still scrambling to find a solution for these kind of rather crude drones, and Hezbollah is, you know, still still a force. Again, um, we were promised something quite different uh even last year by by the Israeli leadership in terms of Hezbollah's ability to fight Israel. So um yes, it's all for the good that both sides are talking. Uh you know, is the Lebanese government strong enough to disarm Hezbollah? No. Um Saf Orion in our conversation had a very kind of clear-eyed and pragmatic approach, uh, not just military force and airstrikes and the IDF, but also kind of a whole holistic whole of government uh regional approach to tackling the Hezbollah problem set. I think that, you know, it's a it's a good way to go. But um I don't think it's gonna happen at the negotiating table in Washington uh in in a few days. It's it's helpful. Sorry to be the prepared. Yeah, I'm I'm a realist.

Shanie 23:14

That's what you always say when I call you a pessimist.

Neri 23:18

But I will say um there is you know, because the two fronts are fused, if there is another escalation, let's say on the other side of the China summit between the U.S. and Iran. Aaron Powell you think there is I think there's a there's a greater likelihood than not because Trump is stuck, right? So unless something unexpected happens, um or uh you know unless he gets serious about reopening the strait via the U.S. Navy and going beyond just this kind of signpost of of Project Freedom, whatever that meant, whatever that was meant to do, um you know that could that could easily lead to an escalation as well. But that you know, it's kind of one step below just restarting the bombing. Um but yeah, I'm I'm I'm pessimistic on that front as well. But but it should be said if the Iran front restarts uh with or without Israeli input, I'd say likely with Israeli input, then we will likely see the Lebanon front also escalate.

Shanie 24:17

Aaron Powell All right, we'll look forward to that. Hopefully when I next record with you, you're not in a bomb shelter.

Neri 24:22

Uh no, we're but but we're we're about to get to to more optimistic news, trust me.

Shanie 24:27

Are we? I was going to talk about Netanyahu next.

Speaker 1 24:33

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Shanie 25:30

Netanyahu had his CBS interview, which you'll correct me as always if I'm wrong, uh, but I think was his first English language or foreign interview since the war started. Is that right? That's what the news said, okay?

Neri 25:45

It's no, no, I all cutting aside, I think I think that's that's right. Um if there is one, I you know, forgive me. But it's definitely let's put it this way. Um, it's been ages since Netanyahu sat down for a real Hebrew language.

Shanie 26:04

Um oh, I'm thinking of the one in England. I'm thinking of the one he did with Barry Weiss like years ago in English. That's the last time I heard him do like a really long one. Okay. So how ascribe it, how was it?

Neri 26:15

I will say he usually likes to go on uh Israeli or American rather uh broadcasts, right? So let's say Fox and Friends or whatever it might be. Um but I can't remember the last time he sat down for like such a long interview, and and definitely like I said, um he's refusing to actually answer questions in Hebrew beyond just press conferences that he sometimes deigns to convene, right? So it it is it is a major problem that he only gives these kind of long interviews to foreign outlets.

Shanie 26:53

Right.

Neri 26:54

It's a it's a problem.

Shanie 26:55

I I know you're dying to interview Nessanyao. Um tell me about tell me about this interview. Was anything surprising? Were there things he said that you think he wouldn't say in Hebrew to the Israeli public?

Neri 27:07

No, I'll say a couple things about this interview, and I urge people to to go and check it out. Uh not just the the actual what was it, 15 minutes that was aired on on CBS.

Shanie 27:18

There's like an extended one that's like an hour and 15 or something. Hour and 19, really long.

Neri 27:25

I urge people to go and check that hour and 19 out. Um it's it's fairly remarkable, and not because of anything Netanyahu said. Uh it's remarkable because I've never seen Netanyahu so uh uh haggard, uh tired. He he he looks uh not great. And that's just kind of in terms of appearance. His voice was was kind of faint, uh not as authoritative as as you know he usually is, um, speaking in either English or Hebrew. Uh he was sitting kind of in this living room, um, reportedly in uh Jerusalem, in the home of his billionaire backer, um, this kind of very wealthy family, American family uh that has a home here, that apparently the house in Jerusalem has um a heavy-duty uh bomb shelter. And I think his family spent a lot of time there, so that's where reportedly the interview took place. It was just odd. Um and he just looked, didn't look good. Uh and that's even before you get into kind of his responses. He wasn't as focused as he usually is. He meandered a little bit. Wasn't as sharp. Right. And so I urge everyone to kind of check it out because uh you can say a lot of things about Netanyahu, but when he like when he himself doesn't feel that he's on top form and that things are not going uh as well as he would like, you can oftentimes see it in him physically, right? When he's under pressure, usually politically, you can kind of see he's a bit more frantic.

Shanie 28:59

Aaron Powell I think that's all humans.

Neri 29:02

Yes. Uh all humans. Although, in fairness, I think Trump actually hides it quite well because even in recent weeks you you would think he'd be a bit more frantic and a bit more panicked, but he at least kind of outwardly doesn't portray that at all.

Shanie 29:16

Aaron Powell Yeah. No one compartmentalizes like that guy.

Neri 29:19

Aaron Ross Powell Yeah. Yeah. I mean we could get into a kind of psychological breakdown of people who can uh disassociate like that. But yeah, it you know, it's it's it's like that for most people, that's correction-y, but not for a politician at Netanyahu's level with his level of experience, right? But this has been true with Netanyahu since kind of since the beginning, right? Um he gave this famous speech, uh I forget when. It must have been like late 90s, maybe early 2000s, where he was kind of profusely sweating and he was, you know, kind of yelling out like they're they're scared, they're scared. But you know, he he well, we what he was conveying with it, you know, he was kind of scared. Um anyway, it's a famous kind of Israeli Israeli political speech that uh did not go anyow's way. I digress. Um I urge everyone to kind of check this out because the the the performance and the appearance were were not great from it. And then you kind of um zoom out and you kind of understand uh that the Iran war definitely did not go like he had hoped and like he had planned. Um he even admitted in the interview that, well, Hamas is still in Gaza. That front has not been resolved. Total victory has not been achieved. Um, the uh the front in the north with Hezbollah is still ongoing and still actually deadly for Israel and Israelis. Uh so that's not great. Um he's worried that Trump may cut a deal with Iran, right? So he doesn't like. So he gets up there and he's talking, he's still talking about, well, um, this is like the famous soundbite from from the interview where he's asked uh by the CBS uh interviewer, well, how are you gonna get the highly enriched uranium out of there? And then Yao says, well, we'll we'll just go in and take it. And you you wonder, okay, with with what army? Um, how? I mean, operationally, it's according to every kind of military expert that you speak to, it'd be nearly impossible, or or at a prohibitive price, right? Uh and then later he says, well, you know, with a deal, we can just go in and and and take it. It's like, well, um, you still haven't been able to get that deal. Uh and if you got to that deal, would you Bibi Netanyahu and would Israel be happy with, say, in return, having to give the Iranian regime mass masses of sanctions relief, right? That would not make Bibi Netanyahu happy at all. Um and you know, that that was kind of the famous soundbite, but but a lot of the answers also were detached from reality. And I say this kind of carefully, a a more experienced interviewer uh that speaks fluent Netanyahu-Es or fluent Bibi uh would have pressed him on various points, uh like his assertion that you hear again and again, not just in that interview, that, well, Iran is uh at its weakest point ever. It's never been weaker. It's like, well, you you say that, uh, and yet they're holding the global economy hostage. So clearly, strategically, they're in a much more powerful position than they were three months ago. That now Netanyahu uh Netanyahu Trump has to go and and negotiate with them, and and they're kind of looking him square in the eye and not blinking. So uh remarkable interview, um not a great performance. And and again, uh you can kind of feel the pressure that Netanyahu is under. Uh also politically, elections, you know, winter is coming. No, summer is coming, but uh elections are elections are coming. And he he and his uh political allies uh are underwater. They're behind in the polls. Uh his party is um his acute party is uh depending on the day, verges between uh a joke and a disgrace, depending on their actions and statements. And so he he, I think he himself understands that his party is a major liability and will likely try to reshuffle the deck and re-engineer the list. Um he may try to do other things uh ahead of the election. Trevor Burrus, Jr.

Shanie 33:21

Does he control the entire list?

Neri 33:24

He doesn't not not control the entire list.

Shanie 33:27

Okay. Tell me more. Like he can he can remove people, add people, like whoever he wants, roughly.

Neri 33:34

Aaron Powell So he's attempting to get a larger proportion of the Likud list for the upcoming election uh to be nominated by him personally via his own choice as opposed to the primary election, which is how the list is usually set up. Oh there are always kind of a handful of uh direct appointments by the party chairman, i.e. Netanyahu, uh he's reportedly trying to expand that number greatly to get who he wants in and who he wants out out. Uh and also Netanyahu, who is um well, the the king, the king of the party. So if he if he's lobbying or campaigning for specific candidates that will carry a lot of weight uh in the primaries, kind of whenever they're held, but likely to be held soon. So he understands that politically his position is not great. I assume he'll do his utmost to kind of repair that. Uh and big picture, Shinee, uh he's running out of runway. He's running out of runway on the various fronts with regards to the various promises he's made now for two and a half years. Um this latest round/slash war with Iran was supposed to be his kind of grand finale, his big finale that he he got the U.S. president and the U.S. military uh to go fight alongside him and the IDF. And it as of now has not gone that well or not gone according to plan, despite the rhetoric from Netanyahu and Trump kind of hoardly. So um he may have bit off a bit more than he than he could chew because uh, well, last fall and let's say at the turn of the year, I think his his position was was much better. Um his position was much better. So he's got a lot of work to do to catch up. Um I I I I don't doubt that he'll he'll try.

Shanie 35:22

Well, he has this final, I think, Knesset session starting, like the last one before there's an election. I don't know how long that is, but is there anything on the domestic front he's looking to do? Because obviously this is going to be his legacy ahead of an election. Um so there's a lot kind of weighing on him, especially because there's a I mean, it is always in Israel, a lot happening on the regional front, but is there anything he's doing in Israel itself?

Neri 35:44

So you should separate between what they're doing kind of internally and what they may try to do politically ahead of an election. Um I mean, look, before we started recording, the big news was that the Harides now uh finally realized that he will not be passing a ultra-orthodox military exemption bill, uh which they call a military enlistment bill, but it's uh really to kind of exempt the ultra-orthodox from the opposite of an enlistment bill. Trevor Burrus, Jr. Look, this is uh it's all you know, Israeli politics is nothing if not Orwellian. So whatever whatever statement they say, it usually means the opposite, uh especially this this Israeli government, right? Uh we're we're fighting for democracy by undermining the Supreme Court and the judiciary and any guardrails, right? But this is this is really the the will of the people and and democracy in action, which you know obviously is is nonsense. But I was gonna say the ultra-orthodox, uh so before we start recording. I think even for them, they realize that this bill is not passing and that the Knesset may actually disperse sooner than people imagine, and that my prediction uh of a September election will likely likely prove accurate, that it's going to Knesset is going to disperse sooner rather than later, and that the election will um happen in whatever, three and a half months. Um that's not that long a time frame. You know, it's long in terms of a campaign. It's kind of an endless Israeli election campaign, but uh well, not compared to America, but for for Israel or other parliamentary democracies. It's three three months is a long time and a lot a lot does happen. But uh so I think you know, again, he's running out of runway. Um and will they try to pass certain bills uh beforehand? Yeah, they can they can try. Some are uh worse than others. So the bills that they're proposing range from kind of terrible to even worse than terrible. Um will they will they pass? Will they pass legal muster in front of the Supreme Court? Can they pass these laws if it's a transition government in a consent that that has already kind of voted to go to elections? I mean, there's all kinds of like legal implications. Um the bottom line is that you're likely going to see him and his government and his governing coalition kind of ramp up the rhetoric and incitement against the Supreme Court, right, which isn't letting them quote unquote govern against the Attorney General. Um recently they picked a fight against the outgoing Mossad chief. Um so that's going to be kind of a huge flashpoint when the Dedi Barnea, the outgoing Mossad chief, is replaced by Roman Gorfman, who's um Netanyahu's military secretary and also uh hatchet man for Netanyahu, um, decidedly kind of unqualified to be Mossad chief, but he was nominated by Netanyahu. Netanyahu insists that he will be Mossad chief, so that's another flash point. Um he's going to go after the Arab-Israeli voters and the Arab-Israeli politicians, try to delegitimize them. That's kind of the crux of the Likud campaign. That's literally the only thing they're running on at this point. So they're trying to undermine that, to uh take that card away from the opposition uh in any kind of future government or coalition formation process. Um again, there's a there'll be a lot of time to talk about the ins and outs of the election and what may happen, but uh it kind of ties in, I think, to the Netanyahu CBS interview and the overall state of things here in Israel, which is you know, aside from the prospect of uh renewed war with Iran and incoming missiles, uh we're really we're really coming to uh an election campaign finally. Uh this far-right Israeli government, um, the worst Israeli government in Israeli history, by by any metric on every front, only has a few more months left. Uh this will be its final Knesset session, the summer session. Um that's all for the good. I told you there would be some rays of sunshine, right? That after that after uh nearly Well, three, three and a half years, uh this kind of nightmare is hopefully coming to a close, and that uh you know, with every Israeli election, hope springs eternal, so something more positive comes out on the other side.

Shanie 40:02

Except that one time it didn't, but go on.

Neri 40:05

Well, except the except for the many times that it didn't. But one time it did. And I think uh that gets me out of bed in the morning, Shanee.

Shanie 40:13

Um, I won't take that away from you.

Neri 40:16

Trevor Burrus, Jr.: It's not the early morning phone calls from my editors in London. Uh it's it's the the hope, right? The hope that uh tomorrow uh an election will be held and uh a new Israeli government, a better Israeli government will take power and work to start repairing um a lot of the damage of of recent years. So uh again, this is this is decidedly the mood here here in Israel. Uh the opposition also, there's all kinds of kind of moves being taken on that side of the aisle. Uh they're getting their own ducks in a row, which I think is is appropriate. Uh finally, and they're they need they need to run an effective campaign to uh to get rid of BB. So uh again, we'll have a lot of time to talk about it, but that's that's the current kind of domestic state of play. And um look, uh tomorrow, tomorrow could bring something else. But uh but let's just hope that how shall I put this? Let's just hope that the institutions of the state hold together long enough till we get to election day and also the day after election day, uh, and that the fears of many people here, um even people that you and I know and respect, uh not usually prone to hysteria. But if those types of people are are quite concerned, uh then Netanyahu and this government will start um playing some shenanigans with the electoral process. And and that my hope is that the institutions of the state hold together long enough for for that not to come into play and impact the election. So we'll leave it that. There'll be there'll be more time to talk about it, but yeah.

Israel and Netanyahu's Favorability in the U.S.

Shanie 41:56

Yeah, as as that I mean, hopefully it doesn't come up, but as that comes up, that's sort of like classical democratic backsliding authoritarianism. So hopefully we don't see which has been a little bit to some degree on hold in Israel. So hopefully we don't see that come back ahead of elections time, the absolute worst time to bring back those practices. Um, but we'll see.

Neri 42:15

So talking about backsliding, I wanted to get your uh your vibe check about things on your side of the world. Uh obviously these polls have come out showing uh growing uh negative sentiment towards Israel. Also, interestingly, they're they're gauging negative sentiment towards Bib Netanyahu directly. Uh the numbers are are, well, terrible um and getting getting worse. Um what's your sense of I guess Israel's um favorability rating uh right now? And and also I'm very curious to get your sense of how the Iran war looks from from your vantage point in New York.

Shanie 42:57

Um so the unfavorability, just to tell people what the data said, is about um 60% of US adults have an unfavorable view of Israel. Before this war started, 2022, that was 42%. So it's a pretty steep increase. Uh what's interesting is that uh it it really mirrors their views of Netanyahu. So they're they're seemingly unable to separate Israel from Netanyahu right now. Um and that's actually the core difference. If we're going to talk about American Jews versus all other Americans, they're very similar in their views writ large, except on that. American Jews separate Israel from Netanyahu. So even though they share this low confidence of Netanyahu and low confidence in the war, in the Iran war and all sorts of things, they still view Israel favorably. Other Americans don't can't. They can't even picture what an Israel without Netanyahu even look like. We only saw that for like four minutes a few years ago, right? They're unfamiliar with the concept. And so they're not really able to separate it, which is by the way, is why I mean you had a bunch of pessimists on your podcast who might be colleagues of mine a week or two ago talking about this, but I actually think that if there's a chance, A different government, like a Benet Lepe government, let's say, I do think it makes a big difference because of that separation. Being able to separate Israel from the government and how you view the country versus the government is really important. And having a different leadership really changed that.

Neri 44:15

So you're firmly one of those in the camp that it's, you know, it's less an issue with Israel per se, but Israel has a Netanyahu problem amongst Americans. Is that fair to say?

Shanie 44:27

Israel has a lot of problems among Americans, but a core one is Netanyahu, yes. There's the component of Israeli policy, right? There's there's core Israeli policies that are deeply troubling in general and deeply troubling to Americans, especially, um, partially because of the complicity that's felt. So that brings us to a different question that I'm sure over the next few months you'll have more of on this podcast around the next defense treaty. But the reason Americans, one of the reasons Americans are so invested is because of the money that they know is being sent to Israel. Yes, they do that to a lot of other places, blah, blah, blah. But the reality is like that's the sentiment among Americans. We're investing a lot here. So we are going to be obsessively looking at it. Um, so there's that's like part one is would Americans view Israel differently if there was different less or or no military aid going to Israel? Um, I'll just say that I, from the polling I've seen, I think it would make a difference for Republicans because you see a lot of Republicans are also, especially young Republicans, are very anti-Netanyahu and viewing Israel unfavorable, unfavorably. Uh, young Republicans, and it's not even that, it's 18 to 49-year-old Republicans. I think 57% have negative views of Israel. So it's like very, very high. Um, it's higher for young Democrats, of course.

Neri 45:40

It's remarkable numbers.

Shanie 45:42

Um, but really, really rough numbers. I think a lot of those people, if there wasn't as much money involved, they would feel differently. And if there wasn't a Netanyahu involved, I think it really affects it because it's not just the policies, it's a lot of the rhetoric. It's a lot of the personality. Okay, he represents something now. After 10, 15 years, he represents in the Israel that has existed, which is a country that a lot of people here don't feel connected to. Um, and so just by changing the face, you change a lot. Um, never mind that you're now talking about getting rid of Ben Virin Smutrich. And Israelis don't realize this, even American Jews don't realize this. The types of crazy things that those people do that ends up in the news here is insane. Like things I would never hear about that Israeli news aren't covering because they don't even care. Everything they say is on the news here all the time. So if you could remove that element, you're already doing a lot better. You're already doing a lot better. And when it comes to the Iran war, I mean, I think it goes without saying most Americans oppose the war with Iran. They don't see it as helping the United States. They think that it's to benefit Israel, which is really nice for Israel. But and for some of them, that's important. Like American Jews were like, okay, yeah, we we can see the benefits in general. Um, but as a rule, I think it's fair to say this is a rule, Americans are skeptical of war. They are especially skeptical of wars that were framed as regime change wars because they haven't seen any really successful regime change wars. They've only seen that make situations mostly worse and then eventually better after 20 years. They're they're not inclined to the source of wars. They're very skeptical of wars abroad. Um, not because they love the Ayatollah, but I think they're really skeptical this is going to work. And I think that what's played out has sort of, you know, encouraged that narrative that wait, what are we doing here? Now we're talking about the Straits of Hormuz, who even knew about that problem? Did that problem exist? Did we create that problem because we were trying to do regime change? And of course we failed. So now we're not even talking about regime change. What is this all for? I think we're hearing a lot more of that. And then there's the perception, which is a which is really bad for Israel. The perception that Israelis dragged us into this war. And that's uh dangerous and damaging. It's not baseless, but it's also not a hundred percent true. It's like somewhere in between, right? Of course, Netanyahu encards this war. And of course, it's Donald Trump, like that guy was chomping at the bit a little bit. So um sorry, say say your piece on this, please.

Neri 48:14

No, no, I I think it was in the episode I recorded with Amos Harel, uh, our good friend a few weeks ago, where I had to kind of interject and say, well, um Amos, it wasn't just that Netanyahu kind of sold this war to the Americans and and, you know, uh influenced them to get involved. Donald Trump has agency. The U.S. military has agency, the U.S. intelligence agencies have agencies. Sorry for the pun. Um So uh you know, these are these are big boys. Uh Donald Trump can make his own decision. I don't know anybody who's you know forced Donald Trump to do anything.

Shanie 48:48

I I agree. I think the fact that Netanyahu lobbied uh himself, advocated for this war to happen, is like not sufficient for me to place the blame of the war in his lap because this is a country, like this is a the president of the United States who's making a decision. I I don't care. Like, there's a lot of people lobbying the government here all the time to do all kinds of things. That doesn't like that's irrelevant to me. It's your job to make the right decision. So and there's also this like anti-Semitism component that's coming up for me of oh, the like prime minister of Israel is single-handedly dragged the United States into war, right? There's like a level of that, the an overestimation of power from a prime minister of a pretty small country influencing the most powerful world leader that feels anti-Semitic to me. So there's like a component there that doesn't sit well. Um, regardless, I will say that is a perception in the United States. I don't think it's I think it's because that's I mean, there was a massive New York Times spread about it. So it's it's not it's really in our discourse right now, this perception, but um, that's how it lands with me.

Neri 49:49

Yeah, I don't think it's uh the perception of anti-Semitism or feeling. I I think it is anti-Semitic. Uh we've seen it also. Um there was uh what was it, Friday, Friday evening. Uh somebody went after our friend uh Barack Ravid, the reporter for Axios in Channel 12 here. Uh and they basically created this kind of AI-generated magazine cover showing Barak uh pulling the strings of uh Trump and Netanyahu. Yeah, yeah. It was um obviously very informal. Yeah, and you know, the the man who moves markets, right? So, you know, they're going after a reporter for doing his job, but obviously like a Jewish and an Israeli reporter doing their job. Um and yeah, I'm I'm not uh not obviously a defender of Bibi Netanyahu. Um and he obviously had a m integral role in the lead up to to this war. Um but again, to to pin it all on kind of uh Israeli influence or Jewish influence, um it plays into the the oldest stereotypes. Uh and you by the way, you hear it from even not uh crazy people who say, well, Trump will Trump will just do whatever Netanyahu wants him to do. And I was like, uh you know that's not true. Um and also Trump has forced Netanyahu to do various things that Netanyahu has has not wanted to do over the past year and a half. So um I don't know. It's it's a very dangerous time, a very toxic, toxic time. Um Yeah.

Shanie 51:22

My my last point on this, first of all, it goes without saying, but I'll I'll say it anyway. A new government in Israel is not going to eliminate anti-Semitism in the United States or anywhere else. That's just not how it works. Um and there are a lot of regular, moderate people who could be inclined to view Israel or at least Israelis more favorably and having a different face of Israel, a less toxic face of Israel, frankly, um, with less extreme policies, a lot of things Americans won't support, probably, but less extreme policies and less extreme rhetoric will have an incredible effect. Uh, and it's the only thing that will salvage the relationship. With another four years or however many years of this government, it's only going to get infinitely harder. I mean, the relationship is holding on by a thread, not at the security level, but at the people level. And that matters too. This is a democracy. We elect our leaders here. So maybe we don't see what the public opinion is around Israel reflected in politics yet, but we will because we vote for our elected officials. So it's a dangerous game that we're playing with here.

Neri 52:28

Very dangerous game. And uh I think we need to finish up. Uh, but I'll leave you with this anecdote, Shani. Uh an old uh Israeli friend of mine called me up uh the other the other week uh in despair. Uh and I was like, hey, what's happening? What's this? He's like, well, you know, my wife is is just despondent. Uh she doesn't understand what's happening in America. She doesn't understand, you know, what happened to the Democratic Party. Uh why why are they supportive of Israel? This is like hugely dangerous for Israel's future because, you know, for years Israel was a strongly bipartisan and consensual issue. All right. And uh after a lot of fulmilling and telling him, well, uh, if you think the Democratic Party is bad, let me tell you about the extreme fringes of the Republican Party and the and the and the podcast bros and all that, uh let me let me clue you in on that side of the aisle. But I said, look, you need to tell your wife that uh kind of waking up and and being in despair of American politics and Democratic Party politics is all fine and well and good from thousands of miles away. But the most impactful thing she can do as an Israeli citizen and as a voter is to go and work to change the Israeli government, and that if she actually wants to do something positive both for the Israeli-U.S. relationship and for, frankly, Israel's future, uh, she needs to ensure that there is a different Israeli government. And he's like, well, you know, that won't change anything. They hate us anyway. Qatar is funding universities, uh, information campaigns on social media. By the way, these are the same talking points that Nyahu used in the CBS interview. Um, and the interviewer to his credit asked, you know, there's nothing there's nothing you could have done differently uh to change the perception of Israel? And then Yahoo says, no. No.

Shanie 54:21

That's insane.

Neri 54:22

Yeah, which is insane. And there was no follow-up, uh, sorry to say. So um, you know, after fulminating against, you know, uh, Qatari funding of universities and you know the growing Trevor Burrus, Jr.

Shanie 54:33

All real problems, by the way, that do exist.

Neri 54:35

Trevor Burrus, Jr.: They're all real problems.

Shanie 54:36

Trevor Burrus, Jr.: Responsibility.

Neri 54:38

Trevor Burrus, Jr.: It doesn't absolve Israel's responsibility. And to your point, Shani, the most impactful thing Israel and Israelis can do is to change the government and to have a different government that tells the world a different story and actually acts on that story, but also to change the story. Israel is telling um about itself, about its role in the region, um, about the Palestinians, uh, about its relations with Europe, um, about its relationship with the Democratic Party, and on and on and on. Um hopefully he took that on board and relayed that to his lovely wife. Um we could only hope. Uh but I think I think I think uh I hopefully did get through. Um yes, it it would go a long way to not only repairing things here at home in Israel, but also uh the U.S. Israel relationship. And uh we could only we could only hope. Um again, you know, can you imagine the perception of Israel if once again a Benet Lepid and whoever else government had an Arab-Israeli political party as part of the governing coalition? How far that would go to actually improving Israel's image and not just image in America and other places. Um But Israelis kind of you tell them that, and I'm I'm I'm curious whether it filters through. It's a lot easier just to blame you know the algorithms in Qatar, right?

Shanie 56:04

All right, Nari, with that, I'm gonna hope that Neftali Bennett listened to this episode and I'll look at you on the other side.

Neri 56:11

He definitely listens. Uh and it's good catching up with you, Shanie. Let's uh let's hope for the best. Um take care.