Introduction

Shanie 0:05

Shalom and welcome to Israel Policy Pod. I'm your host, Shini Reichmann, the director of strategic initiatives and of IPF ATED here at Israel Policy Forum. I'm joined by Nari Silber, your usual host, a journalist based in Tel Aviv and a policy advisor with Israel Policy Forum. Hi, Nari.

Neri 0:21

Hi, Shani. It's great to see you once again. It's been uh maybe two months since we did this. So uh long overdue. Long overdue. Um, and a lot to talk about on my end and also things in the second half of this.

Shanie 0:35

Never boring on my end.

Neri 0:37

Well, never boring anywhere in the world, but especially in Israel and America. But I am curious at the end to get your thoughts about uh, well, the latest uh in American politics, the American Jewish community. So um I personally am very curious to get your take and your update. Um I should say before we get into the the tahis, the the brass tacks of of what's happening in Israel, uh last week I recorded a fantastic episode with uh David Daoud on Lebanon and the recent kind of U.S. brokered Israel-Lebanon deal. But I did not uh record an outro, as they call it, or uh a conclusion to the podcast because of technical issues. So I didn't wish America a happy birthday. So uh belatedly a happy 250 to the United States of America.

Shanie 1:23

Thank you. On behalf of America, we accept your belated happy birthday. Um we barbecued a lot in celebration. Um, we're we're gonna spend this episode uh starting with before we get to America, the always exciting domestic Israeli politics with the mad dash to pass as much controversial legislation as possible and then fight with the court system about it before the Knesset summer session ends, and then how that's leading to a mini constitutional crisis and a whole lot of campaigning in between, because again, we're ahead of an election cycle. Um, but of course, we also won't leave you hanging when it comes to the state of play in Iran, Lebanon, Gaza, all of Israel's major fronts before we come to my side of the ocean, where we'll talk about the very dramatic Democratic primaries, especially in New York, um, around America's 250th birthday, which overwhelmingly and some would say needlessly centered Israel way too much. Yes, Neri.

Neri 2:21

I've heard of the uh the Israel focus slash obsession in current-day American politics. Um, as both an American and Israeli, I am always kind of amazed at the level of attention this one country halfway around the world gets. But uh so so it goes. Um Yeah.

Shanie 2:40

So, Nary, talk to me about what's happening inside

What’s New on the Government’s Agenda and How It May Affect Elections

Shanie 2:43

Israel first. So let's start with the current government, which I think is doing everything possible to irritate as many Israelis as possible before the election cycle this fall. So, what's new on their agenda and then how is it affecting the elections? Because obviously, aside from irritating as many people as possible, it's also shoring up support with some of their major coalition partners. Um tell me what's going on there.

Neri 3:05

So, yeah, a lot to unpack, but big picture, we are coming to the end, some would say merciful end of this current Knesset. So by law, although it's not yet official, the current Knesset session and this current Knesset could end next week. And after that, they'll have to set a date for an election. Uh at this point, almost certainly end of October, October 27th or thereabouts. So, really, um, I mentioned this last week at the uh beginning of the podcast with David. Uh, it seems impossible, maddening, choose your adjective, that this particular Israeli government will actually have fulfilled four years in power, um, which is rare for any Israeli government. Uh hasn't happened maybe a handful of times in Israeli history, but this one, uh, by hook and by crook, and uh this is a Netanyahu's sixth government, it will last uh a full four years. So uh remarkable. So that's what we're looking at for next week. And like you said, there's now a mad dash in the remaining week or so, and maybe they'll have a bit of time after next week to at least begin to try to pass certain, like you said, controversial pieces of legislation. Some of them don't have any direct bearing on the election, uh, but some of them are obviously highly, highly political and are meant to kind of shore up Netanyahu's coalition and base of support on the other side of the future election. So things like uh they want to pass a law creating a wholly political, wholly politicized uh commission of inquiry into October 7th. So by law here in Israel, going back decades, there should be a state commission of inquiry for literally um every scandal, fiasco, failed war, failed operation.

Shanie 4:57

And Neri, can you just clarify we I know there was one in 1973 after the Yom Kippur War. Any other prominent examples of when there was a commission of inquiry?

Neri 5:06

Oh, I mean, uh too many to to mention, but there was uh there was a state commission of inquiry after the uh 1982 Sabron Shatila massacre. So that uh implicated then Defense Minister Al Sharon. He was forced to resign due to the conclusions of that state commission of inquiry. Um there was a it wasn't a state commission of inquiry, but a believe a national commission of inquiry after the 2006 Second Lebanon War, which heavily implicated several senior IDF officers who uh either quit beforehand or quit afterwards. Um it heavily implicated then Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, and that led uh directly to him kind of cratering in the polls. Um he himself had legal issues that ultimately forced him from office.

Shanie 5:49

Aaron Powell So, Neri, this is very this is very threatening to Bibi Netanyahu for obvious reasons, which is that it often emerges a lot of incriminating evidence that there was, let's say, at least negligence on the part of the political leadership as well as security echelon. Um and so if that comes ahead of an election, it's a big problem for Netanyahu.

Neri 6:07

Aaron Powell Look, we don't want to kind of get ahead of any conclusions and what those may or may not be in getting bearing down and investigating the reasons for October 7th, the decisions, whether strategic, operational, military, and whatever else that led up to that terrible, terrible Saturday morning, um, and then everything that came after it, i.e., the last three years of war. Um, it just, well, you just need to look at who is trying to avoid uh for three straight years, trying to stop this commission of inquiry from being formed, and who's actually pushing and making this a major point uh in their upcoming platform, i.e., Netanyahu and his entire government have refused to set up any kind of commission of inquiry, let alone a state commission of inquiry led by law by uh a Supreme Court justice. Um they've consistently said they are not willing to do that. And the opposition to a T have made setting up this exact same state commission of inquiry a major plank in their upcoming election campaign. So that tells you all you need to know about who's uh afraid of potential outcomes and conclusions. But the point is they're trying to essentially politicize this entire process. They don't want any judges or any Supreme Court judges to decide the makeup of this committee. Um, they're using that as kind of a bludget against the judiciary. This is, as we both know, long-standing um position by this Netanyahu government to try to kind of undermine both the power and legitimacy of the Israeli judiciary, again, unprecedented in Israeli history, amongst many unprecedented moves. Uh, and this bill is meant to essentially create a politicized and political commission of quote unquote inquiry that will be nominated by the government. So they want to pick the people who will actually be investigating them.

Shanie 7:56

Okay. So they want some kind of commission of inquiry that's going to like save face with the public, ostensibly, but it's very political and they're sideline the Supreme Court judicial system in favor of appointing their own folks to investigate their own people. Yes?

Neri 8:12

Yeah, that's exactly right. Um, there's also other kind of legal tools that a state commission of inquiry has in comparison to other commissions of inquiry. They can by law um subpoena witnesses, they can subpoena information. I mean, uh this is a this is a real entity, a real organization or body in Israeli law that has been used, like I said, countless times over decades. This particular Israeli government feels uh that the State Commission of Inquiry is no longer um necessary, objective. Um again, it's it's maddening, but this is the narrative that they put out there. And so they're trying to push an alternative um facts-based political state commission, or rather, commission of inquiry, as it were. Um but that's just one bill. Um they're continuing to try to kind of undermine the power of the attorney general here, again, by law. Uh, attorney general is the highest kind of legal official in the land. Again, long-running saga by this Israeli government against the attorney general. Um, again, unprecedented. I'm gonna use that word uh many times in this episode, Shiny. Uh they they're trying to pass laws to kind of uh take control of the uh public broadcaster here. So this is again the this government's attempts to um either undermine or coerce or take over various kind of media organs uh that are deemed kind of anti-government or maybe left-wing or even just independent, um, and helping out media organs here that are deemed pro-government, right wing, and the like. Uh, and then finally, there's this kind of well, controversial law that they're trying to pass having to do with uh Torah study. And that is a bone that they want to uh provide their Haredi ultra-Orthodox coalition partners, well, for right now, but also with an eye to after Election Day, Netanyahu very much is worried about the Haredes jumping ship potentially. Um, and so he wants to kind of shore up that part of his potentially future coalition by at least showing them a good faith effort to pass this law. Again, we don't need to get into the weeds, but essentially a basic law, a quasi-constitutional law that they're trying to pass to anchor Torah study, Bible study of the Heredis as a uh high goal, high value, I think is a better word, in Israeli society. Again, you anchor that in law so that by extension, it'll be, in their minds, much harder for the Supreme Court to try to force the government and force the Herodes to do things they don't want, like enlist in the IDF, uh, like give up subsidies for their um whatever educational institutions, uh, and on and on. So the government's thinking is that by trying to pass this very controversial basic law, um, they'll make it harder for the courts to actually strike down future what they deem anti-hieredy moves.

Shanie 11:12

Aaron Powell So the opposition to this legislation is less about the notion of Torah study as a value of the State of Israel and more about how they anticipate it's going to be used and sort of weaponized as a basis for continuing uh draft evasion and um or exemptions rather, and continuing to sort of fund Yeshiva at the expense of perhaps reservists and and uh kiwitsim in the periphery, et cetera.

Neri 11:36

So that's exactly right. The the biggest outcry you hear is from um IDF reservists who have sacrificed the better part of the past three years fighting, while the Ultra Orthodox continue to refuse to send their young, young boys and and young men into the army. Um that's needs more, more able-bodied fighting men. Um so yeah, there's a big outcry. Uh, you know, the argument goes, uh the initial draft of this basic law Torah study actually had a line that said that compared Torah study to military service. And even that was a bridge too far for this government. They took it out, but that was the that was the goal, right? To kind of elevate it to a point where it uh it would actually match military service. And then by extension, you may not have the legal basis in front of the court to force the Herodes into IDF enlistment. Um, but again, this bid by the government and the you know the Netanyahu governing coalition to try to pass this kind of hodgepodge dog's breakfast of laws, um, either obviously it has a very political purpose. It's not clear to me, and I don't think it's clear even to Bibi Netanyahu and his kind of ministers and senior officials, whether they'll actually be able to pass these laws in time and whether these various laws, whether individually or collectively, will actually pass muster in front of the court. Uh, and yet this is what they're trying to do because, like I said, it has a political motive for after election day to show the herides that they're that they're kind of uh still with them. And also it's, you know, it's kind of a win-win to my mind for the, you know, for the government's thinking, right? You pass these laws that are very popular amongst the Netanyahu base and against the right-wing base, um, that's a good thing for them. And if they pass the laws but they're struck down by the court, then it's just a yet another example of how the courts are uh undermining the will of the people, they're undermining Israeli democracy uh by not letting the government govern and not letting the parliament uh give voice to the will of the people, um, of obviously being highly, highly facetious here. Um, because I think on most of these issues, if not all these issues, according to every opinion poll, uh, the government doesn't have kind of majority public support for any of these things.

Shanie 14:05

Okay. And how does this compare to some of the previous constitutional crises we've talked about in the past? Because over the past four years, especially in the beginning of this government, we spoke a lot about the potential for constitutional crises in the country, especially with the judicial overhaul. So, um, how does this land in the context? Like help us understand what this means in the context of what we saw four years ago at the beginning of this government.

Neri 14:28

So uh the big news of this week, of this past weekend, to be more precise,

How This Compares to Past Constitutional Crises

Neri 14:33

on Sunday, it wasn't a bill that the Netanyahu government tried to pass, but it was essentially a decision that the Netanyahu cabinet passed. They issued a letter uh on Sunday saying that they would not recognize the Supreme Court's decision decision about a highly technical case that nobody had really been following. I mean, some people in the kind of you know the media and political um landscape had had been following it, but very few. Um I can tell you that the foreign media, of which I'm I'm a part, uh, we were not following this case particularly closely relative to all the other things we we just talked about. But it was a a case having to do with the uh TV and radio regulator here in Israel called the Second Authority uh for television and radio. Um I'll spare you the details, Shani, but basically Netanyahu and his uh communications minister Shlom Okari, this kind of Likud um, how shall I describe Shlomokari? Uh he's a kind of Likud official who could only become communications minister uh under this current prime minister and this current Likud party, if that makes sense.

Shanie 15:44

Do you want to say more about like why he wouldn't be in another is it ideological reasons or is it experience reasons that he wouldn't be?

Neri 15:52

It's just the the talent or anti-talent of the man, um and the fact that he he himself is a fairly kind of extreme person just ideologically. Uh and and yet he was put in that position by Netanyahu for a particular reason, which gets to the crux of the matter, to uh undermine various independent media channels. Um I mentioned the public broadcaster earlier. There's also this long-running saga about Channel 13, one of the TV stations here, commercial TV stations, um, whose news division is very critical, does really strong investigative work uh against Netanyahu, Netanyahu's family, against the government. Um, long story short, uh, this channel is likely to be sold to a consortium of um tech billionaires here, led by Asaf Rapoport, uh very prominent kind of tech. He he is literally a billionaire. Um so uh Netanyahu doesn't like that, doesn't like that one bit because he doesn't want Channel 13 to actually kind of grow in influence and power with the backing of these very prominent and wealthy Israeli citizens uh coming from tech. So they tried to kind of pull some legal maneuver having to do with this regulatory body's board. Again, I can already see kind of your eyes glaze over, but I promise this will be this will be painless. This will keep going. This will be painless. Basically, they tried to pull a maneuver to take control of the board, right? This was appealed to the Supreme Court. Supreme Court last month said no. This kind of move that the government tried to do, the communications minister tried to do, is not legal. The old board is still active. It is still the legal board as we know it. Uh, and this was a decision made by the Supreme Court uh last month. And basically on Sunday, the government issued a decision saying that it would not recognize the Supreme Court's decision on this case. It did not recognize the authority of the old board, uh, and that any decisions made by the old board, i.e. the legal board, um, the government would not recognize either. So basically, for the first time in Israeli history, you have a government coming out officially, right? It's not just like a minister here, a minister there, but as a government taking a decision and officially saying it will not recognize a decision made by the Supreme Court here in Israel.

Shanie 18:19

So that was why this is the first time that's ever happened.

Neri 18:21

Ever.

Shanie 18:22

Other times they threatened to do it, and this time they actually did it.

Neri 18:25

Other times the government has threatened to do it, and we'll get to those cases in just a second, trust me. Uh, other times you've had whatever, a tweet by a minister here, by Betsilas Motrich, or by even the Speaker of uh the Knesset, Amir Rouchana, saying, you know, we will not recognize whatever specific decision by the Supreme Court that they didn't like in that given week. On Sunday, what happened is that the government, as a government, took a decision to say, no, we're not recognizing this Supreme Court's decision about this kind of highly technical case having to do with the TV regulator. So why is this important? Well, it's a Rubicon that was crossed, right? Number one, um, first time ever in Israeli history, that a government actually refuses to recognize a decision by the Supreme Court. Uh, and number two, and this was a fear among many legal analysts and even opposition leaders, is that this was kind of a trial balloon by the government. That they start small with this case that I mean, I just spent five minutes explaining it to you, Shani, and you're you're of this world. You're also, you know, I think you're getting paid to be be on this podcast. It's part of your job.

Shanie 19:37

But and I still barely understand what you just said.

Neri 19:40

Yeah, that's fine. The hopefully our listeners uh followed it. But but the bottom line, and this is the crux of it, for the average Israeli, right, that five-minute explanation about the TV regulator and the fate of Channel 13 may not resonate. May not resonate. But what did resonate, I don't know about amongst the public, but amongst, let's say, the professionals and analysts and um political leaders here in Israel, and also by the way, former judges and and uh prosecutors and the like, this was a big deal. This was a big deal. Um there was a debate uh that I had with my editors on Sunday afternoon whether this is actually a constitutional crisis already. Um it's kind of this Talmudic philosophical disputation. What is a constitutional crisis? When do you know you're in a constitutional crisis? Um, we ended up kind of splitting the difference and hedging a little bit. So we may not be in a constitutional crisis at the moment, but it does set up Israel, you know, in the coming days, weeks, and months, especially leading up to the October election, to actually have this recurring instances where the government just comes and says, no, we don't recognize the decision on the Supreme Court by the Supreme Court on issue X, right? And it could be something having to do with election integrity, you know, hypothetically, it could have something to do with That's the scariest part of it, right?

Shanie 21:09

That they could theoretically, you could change the laws of an election, you can change who's allowed to vote, you can change kind of anything, and then just see if the Supreme, like if the Supreme Court tries to intervene, you could theoretically just ignore it in this scenario.

Neri 21:24

Right. Um and again, going back to your initial uh framing of the question, right? This was a real worry in 2023 that by the government's bid to overhaul the judiciary and pass these laws, um, that we would actually reach a situation where you'd have a constitutional standoff between the judiciary and the executive, and by extension the parliament. But the executive and the parliament in Israel are pretty much one and the same because a government has to have uh a majority, usually in parliament, right? There's no real separation like in the American system.

Shanie 21:56

In an American context, I would say there's really only two branches of governments in Israel. The court system, the judiciary, and the Knesset, because the Knesset the Knesset, the parliament and the government are really the same. So it's not like you have two chambers the way you do here. Right. You don't have a separation between president and congress, et cetera.

Neri 22:12

Yeah. And the prime minister, who is obviously the head of the executive, is also the head of the ruling majority in parliament, in Knesset. Um so this was a fear in 2023, but we never we never quite got there for a myriad of reasons. One having to do with you know hundreds of thousands of Israelis coming to the streets every night for or every week for nine straight months. Um and also at the end when push came to shove, uh Netanyahu kind of towed the line, but didn't cross the line back in 2023 and even after 2023. Sunday for many people here was a crossing of the line. Now, again, this this this specific issue is not um, shall we say, of a magnitude like, for instance, uh Supreme Court saying that whatever, the head of a security branch is not the head of a security branch, and the government says no, he's our head of that security branch. And then who who knows that's more extreme. That's more extreme, but but again, um these are the kind of scenarios we were we were thinking about back in 2023. And now, after Sunday, heading into the October election, what happens if um I mean it's hypothetical, but the Central Election Committee certifies the vote in uh whatever it might be, kind of October, November after election day. Uh it goes, it's appealed to the Supreme Court, right? The uh the losing side, let's say the government side um isn't happy with the vote, charges that they're irregularities, the like. Um it goes in front of the Supreme Court. Supreme Court says no, the count was fine. These are the results, and this is our legal decision. And the government says, no. We don't have to.

Shanie 23:55

I'm American, so that's a very familiar scenario to me. I we had um that precise scenario here. Um the some version of the courts winning, I suppose, happened, but you also had to, you had to have had support from from Congress as well for that to really work.

Neri 24:11

That's exactly right. And again, you know, Congress here is not separate. Again, there will be enough time to talk about uh potential election shenanigans uh in in in the you know before in the lead up and then uh in the aftermath of October. Hopefully it doesn't come to it. But bottom line, this is this is uh what happened on Sunday. This is kind of the big story of of this past week in domestic Israeli affairs. Uh, you know, are we in a constitutional crisis? Uh again, uh we can kind of dispute this Talmudically uh for many days. Uh but the the bottom line is that it's not a good sign that this government is now in the kind of the dying days of its term willing to take this kind of step. Um and so the fear is that it will it'll only kind of escalate as we get closer to election day when uh just according to the polls, they may feel like they're uh on the glide path to potentially losing the election, and then they may have a lot less to to lose by themselves and as um as a kind of ruling party, ruling coalition, call it what you will. So yeah, that's what happened. Um, and again, it's kind of separate from all these bills that they're trying to push through. But again, what happens if I mean I'll give you one example. I mean, you know, this let's put it this way the Supreme Court has been very careful, especially in recent weeks, to not put itself in a position where the government actively refuses to abide by one of its rulings. So there have been a number of cases where they kind of try to kick the can down the road because they the judges themselves know that there's an election coming up, and maybe the uh the Israeli public will save us from having uh to face off against the executive and the uh and the legislature. Um so things like uh Itamar Ben Vir as national security minister. That's one case in front of the Supreme Court because he's overstepped in what he's trying to do to the police. Um and so they're they're trying to kind of kick the can down the road. This was a move by the government to actually steer into a crisis with the Supreme Court.

Shanie 26:22

Aaron Ross Powell, uh you think they want to have a crisis with the Supreme Court?

Neri 26:25

I think it plays well amongst their base. And like I said, it's a trial balloon ahead of maybe more consequential decisions that they really don't like. Um that they really don't like. So it remains to be seen.

Speaker 26:40

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Shanie 27:37

Speaking of elections, is there anything you want to add? I feel like every week there's something new coming up because you have different parties growing, adding folks to their slates, releasing platforms. Anything that's happened since your last episode that we focused on this that you want to mention?

Neri 27:53

You know, we could spend a whole hour just on the state of play in Israeli politics heading into like officially the campaign season. I'll say a couple things. Number one, obviously Gaudi Eisencott, the former IDF chief of staff, uh is rising in the polls. So he's now Netanyahu's main competitor from the kind of opposition, the anti-Netanyahu block, uh, call it what you will. So the rise of Isencot, uh Naftali Benet and Yarlapid, two former prime ministers who merged

The State of the Anti-Netanyahu Opposition

Neri 28:21

uh, I believe two months ago or so. Uh they actually kind of decreased in the polls. Um and it wasn't looking great, but they've actually somewhat stabilized over the past week or two. Yeah, yeah. But they're still running second to Isencot in terms of being the alternative to TB, and that's that's a real dynamic. And that's a real uh shift in definitely what they thought would happen after they merged. Um, I spent a bit of time with them uh trying to report a story the last week or so. Uh the mood uh in that in that camp is that uh there's still a lot of time before election day and that um things can can change, things can develop, uh, and so there's no there's no panicking um on that side. And I I would say I don't think there's any real panicking on the Internet and Yahoo kind of broad block, the Internet Yahoo side of of the political spectrum, um, because they see themselves leading in the polls, but the problem as as we've emphasized on the podcast for for for many weeks, uh, they still don't have a clear 61-seat majority in the 120-seat Knesset. So you talk to them and you you kind of bring them up. Okay, what is your what is your path to forming a coalition after election day? They'll say, well, we're gonna win um a clear majority, 63, 64, 65 seats. Uh again, there's still a lot of time. It's unfalsifiable as we're talking now in early July. Uh, I'll be a bit more concerned when we're recording a podcast, Shani, uh, in early October, and the polls still uh, you know, maybe, maybe looking at a tie between the pro Netanyahu and Netanya Nyahoo side.

Shanie 30:06

Yeah. That uh I'm sure we'll talk about this approximately a thousand times between now and then. I have no doubt.

Neri 30:13

Yeah, it's gonna be uh a massive story. Um, again, not to belabor the point. These are existential elections for for Israel and the future of this country. Um, the one wrinkle, and this is something that new that has popped up, say, over the past week or two, you are gonna see these smaller, essentially right-wing parties throw their hat into the ring. Um, by my count, there may be now three different parties. Uh, one of them led by uh former defense minister and IDF chief of staff, Benny Gantz. Um, the other one is kind of this party for likud outcasts, um, whether, whether by choice or otherwise. Uh, and then the other one is kind of this pro-reservist, anti-haredi right-wing party. So again, they're all trying to gonna vie for this for this piece of real estate on the Israeli political spectrum that says both extremes are bad. We're going to force a national unity government on both sides, both Netanyahu and the other side. Um, and we are the avenue to kind of force that into being, uh, despite the fact that none of these parties may actually pass the electoral threshold.

Shanie 31:26

Together.

Neri 31:27

They're they're unlikely to run together. Again, there may be mergers, but at this point you're looking at maybe two or three different parties. So are there enough voters in Israel to actually support all these parties? Number one. Number two, um, these are right-wing figures, political figures, right, that are appealing to a certain Gantz is not as right-wing a political figure. Gantz depends what day you catch him on.

Shanie 31:51

I think he's more right-wing than Ftali Bennett right now, but um, I don't think he's viewed as a right-wing political figure in Israel.

Neri 31:58

Aaron Powell As a political figure, as opposed to what he was as IDF chief of staff and as a kind of former security professional, he is now a chameleon. And I use that term derogatively. He's a chameleon, he's a chameleon in the in the worst possible way, where he kind of you know measures which way the wind is blowing.

Shanie 32:15

Blows with the wind.

Neri 32:16

Yeah, and tries to tailor himself to what he thinks will garner him votes. Um so now he's trying to be kind of the the responsible adult, um, trying to impose unity on both sides, uh, on both blocks, the pro and anti-Netanyahu camps. But um, I mentioned the issue of like, are there enough voters to actually kind of give them that mandate? Number two, um these are right wing, these are right-wing voters, right? Uh, that potentially could find these parties appealing, right? If they're kind of been turned off by Netanyahu and the Likud, and they're not far right enough for Itamar Benvera Batzola Smotrich. Um how many people like that are out there?

Shanie 32:58

You don't think that Benny Gansu has henzo like this reservist party that like the three parties, two or three parties are going to run together and then maybe cross the threshold? So that doesn't seem like medium.

Neri 33:08

Um anything is possible in Israeli politics. They may at the end actually kind of merge, but the issue, at least for now, is is ideological or policy. So Joaz Hendel did not merge with Benny Gantz because Benny Gantz and his other running mates did not commit to keeping the Haredis out of any future coalition. And Joaz Hendel and his people, right? Like I said, they're they're pro-reservists, they're for Haredi enlistment in the IDF. That was a bridge too far, at least for now, uh, for Hendel to to cross. Um, you know, again, the the Likud kind of the Likud reject party, um will will they will they hold a line on Haredi conscription? Maybe, maybe not. But again, you're a Likud voter. You know, these people may actually be fine with Netanyahu being the next prime minister. So why am I voting for them? Why don't I vote for original Coke? Why am I voting for for fake Coke?

Shanie 34:06

Okay, that's fair. I would I would say there is there are some distinctions there. But um, yeah.

Neri 34:11

I mean, again, it'll be tested.

Shanie 34:13

It will be tested. Um, Neri, should we move to regional dynamics? You could tell a state of play for uh Lebanon, even though I know last week you did a whole episode on Lebanon, which was amazing. But if there's any updates on that, how that intersects with um Hezbollah, Iran, Gaza, like how do all of those different entities interact and engage with Israel?

Neri 34:33

So I'll be brief because I do want to pick your brain about what's happening in America right now. But um the bottom line is that not much is happening on any one of these fronts. And as we all know, as I'm sure our audience knows, um, these are kind of US-imposed either deals or negotiations, right? So you have the memorandum of understanding with Iran. Those talks are going very, very slowly. And overnight, uh there was another strike by the Iranians against uh at least one, if not two, tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. And you also had, well, the Lebanon deal we talked about last week with David Daoud. Uh, those talks are also ongoing. We're waiting for the IDF to actually withdraw from these kind of two quote-unquote pilot zones in southern Lebanon,

Israel’s War Fronts with Lebanon, Iran, and Gaza

Neri 35:21

uh, that the Lebanese military needs to take over. That hasn't happened yet, and it's unclear when it will happen. We're trying to kind of figure out when and if and what it'll look like. So again, uh the fighting has for the most part kind of died down, but there has been no real um implementation on the ground just yet, in terms of what was agreed, what was it, a week and a half ago now, in Washington between the Israelis and Lebanese. Um, and then you have Gaza, again, um, also one of these kind of Trump-mediated, vague uh agreements that you can kind of drive uh drive a truck through, uh, that also remains very much TBD, TB determined. Um, next steps in terms of the Gaza ceasefire deal uh have not yet materialized. There's an idea that given the fact that Hamas is refusing to disarm and that negotiations with Hamas by um international mediators and people working for Trump's Board of Peace, which is now officially kind of running Gaza, but not really running Gaza. They're I guess running Gaza policy, if not the actual territory of Gaza. Those negotiations with Hamas uh have gone nowhere. And so the idea now potentially is that they're going to go to what they call Plan B, which is trying to start reconstruction on some level in the parts of Gaza, around 60-70%, depending on who's counting, still controlled by the Israeli military, still controlled by the IDF. So essentially to begin reconstruction there and to kind of pressure Hamas in that way, uh, still a lot of hurdles, to the best of my understanding, until that actually starts. But that's where we are in terms of Gaza. Um, you know, Hamas, audience may have seen headlines yesterday on on Sunday that Hamas kind of quote unquote gave up or dissolved its government in Gaza. Uh, that's kind of a a parlor trick. That's kind of a uh a sleight of hand.

Shanie 37:26

You think it's not at all consequential?

Neri 37:28

It's not at all consequential. It's a political move done under duress. Uh they were under pressure by various kind of Arab governments, and so they quote unquote gave up governance in Gaza, something that they've been kind of willing to do for years now, even predating October 7th. But the civil society that essentially was appointed and serves under Hamas is still in place in Gaza. Um, other senior kind of officials, maybe not by name, are still running the Gaza Strip, the whatever, 40% of Gaza still controlled very much by Hamas. Um, so on the ground, nothing effectively has changed. It's just a political move by Hamas. Say, okay, well, you know, you, the Board of Peace, and this committee of Palestinian technocrats that were um appointed, what, uh in January already. So it's like what six months that have are supposed to come in and take take over civilian affairs in the Gaza Strip, have at it. Let's let's see you deliver, right? That's the play by Hamas. Um, again, to the best of my understanding, the Board of Peace and this Palestinian Technocratic Committee are not yet ready to literally go in and take over civil affairs in Gaza. So, you know, until that changes and until Hamas makes real concessions at the negotiating table vis-a-vis weapons, primarily, um, this is just a, like I said, a sleight of hand to kind of show progress where there hasn't been that much progress just yet.

Shanie 39:01

That that's interesting. I thought that you would have like some level of like thinking that this could help a little bit or like make a little bit of a difference, a little bit of progress, but you're saying zero progress, that it's entirely to appease the pressure, the pressuring Arab nations.

Neri 39:18

Aaron Powell It's to appease pressure or to release pressure on Hamas by various Arab nations. It's also to put pressure on the alternative Palestinian technocratic committee that was set up by Trump, Trump's people and the sport of peace, um, to be like, okay.

Shanie 39:34

What's stopping them from stepping up?

Neri 39:35

How much time do you have? Uh there are a lot of issues ranging from uh security, right? Who's gonna guarantee this new committee or governments security if they go into Gaza? Where will they stay? Right, just like basic kind of okay. Um number two, money. Uh my colleagues and I reported a few weeks ago now that the Board of Peace doesn't have any real money just yet.

Shanie 40:02

That's a tough one.

Neri 40:04

That's a problem, right? Because you at a certain point, the idea from the beginning was that you're going to kind of essentially take away, well, take away the weapons, fine, that you need Kamas to acquiesce fundamentally, which is uh uh high, a high bar, but but also you want to take away their their economic control and civilian control over the population. Um, and that requires an alternative. That requires money and political legitimacy and political will. Um, and those are in short supply just based on the new construct coming out of last October ceasefire deal and then the Board of Peace and all that that we've discussed here on this podcast. Um, lack of money. Uh you also have Israel uh not being the best facilitator of this, and by Israel I mean Bibi Netanyahu. So he doesn't really want to see all that much progress, um, definitely not in the parts of Gaza still controlled by the IDF, right? His whole kind of claim to fame, especially heading into a campaign, is that, well, we control 60, 70% of Gaza, it's a buffer zone, we're gonna stay there, I don't want to say forever, but indefinitely, right? Um, you start kind of creating quote unquote new Gaza under your aegis, under the watchful eye of the IDF for Palestinians in this area, uh, especially for right-wing Israelis, that that will not go over well. So Israel and Anyahoo have put up a lot of hurdles, um, kind of trying to facilitate this um this process. And really at the bottom, Shani, like the Iran War took a lot of uh attention, resources, energy, bandwidth, political capital away from from this issue, right? I think we we would have seen a lot more progress on the Gaza front if Israel and the US hadn't taken this kind of left turn into into an Iran war. Um, you know, to just say one example, right? Um the Gulf Arab states were supposed to be the ones pouring up big money for the reconstruction of Gaza. The Arab Gulf states have uh their own concerns right now, including economic concerns coming out of uh of this uh, shall we say, inconclusive war with Iran? So that's that is a state of play. Um, you know, the best that can be said is that I think after the Iran war, I think Trump himself, let alone his administration, but Trump himself does not want to see fighting restarted. Definitely not in Iran, definitely not in Lebanon, because it has direct bearing on Iran. And I would argue, and I had this this debate with someone earlier today, I would argue also, also in Gaza, right? That if Netanyahu, for sure not. Yeah, and Netanyahu, but for Netanyahu's purposes, right, he thought this was his kind of grand vision. Um you go take out Iran, huge success, right? Then they let you go continue after Iran, and I reported this, I heard this firsthand, to continue the war against Hezbollah and Lebanon until you get great success and total victory against Hezbollah. Uh, and then you kind of transition back to Gaza and you escalate, you get Trump to green light an IDF offensive against Hamas to quote unquote finish the job in Gaza as you head into an election campaign. That was Netanyahu's kind of grand vision, but grand vision met with uh reality.

Shanie 43:34

Yeah.

Neri 43:34

Yeah. Um, so that's what's happening here. So I was gonna say, you know, yeah, not not like positive news to report on all those various fronts, but you know, it hasn't like war hasn't broken out again. So I suppose that's a bonus.

Shanie 43:50

That is always a bonus.

Neri 43:52

Always a bonus should not be taken lightly um in this country, in this part of the world, uh, given the last three years. Um, let's get to Your country, our country, and your side of the world.

Shanie 44:03

Yes. We can both take a little bit of responsibility for both of our countries, even though you're more Israeli and I'm more American.

Neri 44:11

Yeah, well, maybe.

Shanie 44:12

Just own it, Narya. You are not as American as I am.

Neri 44:16

Uh no, I wouldn't, I wouldn't, I wouldn't go that far. I wouldn't go that far. Um But uh I will ask you though to set set the table for us, you know, okay, America 250. Everyone very, very proud. Uh but what is what is the state of play right now in terms of I don't want to, you know, American politics is too broad too broad a brush too broad. But for American Jews, right? Um, and especially given what we've seen in places like New York, but not only, we've all seen in California and and other kind of primaries in the Democratic Party that not only have made Israel a front and center issue, but that it's very much anti-Israel kind of sentiment growing on that side of the aisle. So what should we be looking at?

Shanie 45:04

Sure. So first of all, 250 years of democracy is nothing to scoff at. This makes us the longest continuous democracy, I think, in history, which is a huge feat and really amazing. And hopefully it doesn't all go downhill from here. I'm kidding. I don't, I don't believe that, but it is really amazing. And I still think that New York is possibly one of, if not the best place in the world to be a Jew. Um, definitely if you don't include Israel, uh, then it is. And I love living here and it's amazing. And it's really

The Growing Focus on Israel in American Discourse

Shanie 45:34

important for us to also start talking about the pro-Palestine movement, the anti-Israel movement, and the anti-Semitism and where those all intersect. I don't use any of those three phrases lightly, and I certainly don't use them interchangeably. They are different, uh, but they're all coming up and they are definitely interacting with each other. Um, and a lot of that is how central Israel is to the discourse in even New York State assembly races, let alone congressional um and senate races. Is that right? Uh yes. Um, and with a with a focus on APAC in particular. So I want to take us back to where this kind of started. Um, there was a rally um that Bernie Sanders was kind of headlining um with Mamdani, where Mamdani brought forward his like three uh endorsed candidates, which was Brad Lander, who I would call pro-Palestine, I would not call anti-Israel, Claire Valdez and uh Daria Lisa Vilasha Valier, those two I would call also anti-Israel, as well as pro-Palestine. Um, and that's where Mamdani gave this speech that you've probably seen covered in the news. Many Israelis have been asking me about this speech, uh, where he said this line: now is the time of monsters. They take many forms. He listed a few of those forms and then said, in APAC, for whom the only thing more frightening than democracy being allowed to run its course is an end to genocide and Netanyahu's wars. And I think this was just so over the line for many of us in the Jewish community. And you'll note that Mamdani, of course, came up in pro-Palestine and anti-Israel politics. Um, and he's made this kind of a core component of his rhetoric and his platform and what he cares about and is passionate about. Uh, and and so this wasn't particularly surprising. Uh, there was a surfaced quote from him when he was campaigning for mayor, uh, where he said that when the boot of the NYPD is on your neck, it's laced by the IDF, which for me was a was a huge red line. Um, and so I think this isn't so surprising, but it definitely caused a lot more, um, a lot more of a backlash than I thought it would. Um, there were people who originally supported him who came out against it. 700 rabbis uh wrote a letter to him criticizing it. Rabbi Jill Jacobs, she runs Trua, which is a progressive anti-occupation human rights organization. They had a gala a few weeks ago where um Mamdani gave the keynote speech. So they actively support him. Uh, and and she called him out and wrote a substack article saying that calling APAC and its backwards monsters cast them as less than human rather than as human beings who are one's political opponents. And I think that gets to the like subhuman component of this APAC rhetoric that's making it seem like there's this, not making it seem saying there's this dark money, and it really falls into all these disgusting anti-Semitic tropes about Jews and their money and their power. Um, Brad Lander also, he criticizes not necessarily Mabdani, but in general, this sort of rhetoric, but he also plays into it. He has ad campaigns that are really centering uh around AIPAC. Um, and I think that actually came up a ton. Uh, for the Israelis listening, there is too much money in American politics, objectively. And that's, I think, not where people are being critical.

Neri 48:39

Um I'll also address it's it's a particular kind of money for many of these candidates, right?

Shanie 48:46

Yes. But there's like crypto money and AI money and sugar and beer packs money, gun money, like abortion, pro-life. I mean, yes, ever there's tons of packs, there's tons of money. It's terrible and it's a huge problem. It's the obsession, obsession with APAC. And by the way, like I would say most American Jews are not in lop step uh with APAC for a whole host of reasons that requires a totally different podcast episode. But we're everyone is still, I would say, overwhelmingly troubled by the rhetoric that's centering APAC at the heart of all of these debates and discussions. Um, and a lot of these tropes at the end of the day can and have and maybe will in the future get Jews in America killed. Uh and that's why we're concerned about it.

Neri 49:31

With very good reason. Um and yeah, I was kind of not closely following, but following from far the primary races in in New York. Uh and so that also made news here in Israel, right? Um, it it broke through. But not only, I mean, you had the the the viral video uh of that California or San Francisco Scott Wiener. Yeah, Scott Wiener, right? He's a California politician running for Nancy Pelosi's seat in Congress. He's by all accounts, um, I mean, he's Jewish, gay, and very pro-gay and pro-trans rights um politician and activist.

Shanie 50:11

And yet he is he is by far the most pro-trans community politician, I would say, in this country, um, and definitely most prominent. And he used to run the Jewish, the Jewish Congress, California Jewish Caucus.

Neri 50:23

And yet he shows up at this kind of pro-trans rally, I suppose, in San Francisco.

Shanie 50:28

And he's getting it was a trans Shabbat gathering, I believe. So it was like also a Jewish event.

Neri 50:32

Was it really?

Shanie 50:33

I think so. Now you make me want to check that.

Neri 50:35

Well, I mean, we'll get we'll get uh IT on that. But the that that went viral, but not just kind of viral big picture, but also it made news here in Israel that this uh Jewish politician, um, obviously not a fan of of the Netanyahu government, but uh very and very much a pro-uh gay rights and pro-trans rights, kind of like you said, activist. Um, that wasn't good enough because his position, according to the people filming him and yelling at him on Israel was not pure enough. And they're asking him to repent.

Shanie 51:07

Yeah, Scott Wiener referred to the war in Gaza as a genocide about six months ago, which was clearly too little, too late for the people who were harassing him to do that, right? It was pretty obvious that he was really pressured into saying that. I don't think it's so clear that that's like what he really wanted to say. Yeah, he's a progressive Zionist. Um, he's very engaged with the Jewish community, especially in San Francisco, but he did say it. Um, and and it did upset a lot of the Jewish community uh in California as well. He's clearly the most pro-Israel candidate in this race, and um, he's just not uh he's not fulfilling like the purity test, he's not passing the purity test uh set by the standards. He was really horribly harassed, and it's just obviously anti-Semitism, um, because there are a ton of politicians, including in California, who are basically where Scott is at on Israel and a lot of other things. And he is harassed all the time, basically everywhere he goes, for months, for years. Like it's just very such overt anti-Semitism to be harassing Scott Wiener. Um, and by the way, I did check, it was a um a Shabbat gathering ahead of the trans march uh in San Francisco. And this is something he has gone to for every single year since they started, two decades ago. He's really involved in the community. Um, but that you know, Israel is the fault line. So it doesn't matter if you align on every other single issue. If you don't fall in line on Israel-Palestine, that's it, you're out. Um, and that's sort of the ideological purity that a lot of folks criticize on the left.

Neri 52:31

So that's the scary part, right? I mean, obviously scary part for American Jews and also for Jews not in America, at least currently, looking looking uh from the outside in. This is this is really um like you said, purity tests, um kind of drumming out of the of the party, of the Democratic Party, at least in certain areas, um even progressive but moderate voices and elevating this one issue, like we talked about at the beginning of the episode, to the be-all and end-all of uh American political life, at least on one side of the spectrum. By the way, we could also talk about the other side of the political spectrum amongst, you know, the Tucker Carlson's and Candace Owens of the world, which is also it's you know, every day is Israel Day.

Shanie 53:20

Oh, yeah. Israel's become a really easy talking point. It's become a really easy issue to center because it doesn't have that many consequences in your day-to-day life. Um, and so it's become easy to rally around for a lot of reasons. There's like less controversy on the left around it because of that sometimes. Uh, I will say, like, just to bring it back to uh the DSA, the Democratic Socialists of America, because I do think a lot of this comes back to them. Um, this was a huge win in New York. Uh, nine out of 10 of their endorsed candidates won in the primaries, but mostly in the state assembly, but two were in Congress. But I want to be balanced and remind all of us that assuming these candidates, these two congressional candidates, win in the midterms, we're going to end up with out of 435 Congresspeople, we will have five or six DSA-backed ones. Okay. Five or six out of 435. You do the math. And then we also have 100 senators, none of whom are uh DSA supported. Um and so we may end up with one. Well, I assume not, though. Um, so that's like a pretty small proportion. So I think it's important to say like it was a surprise because this used to be such a marginal fringe group, but and Mamdani brought it uh to the attention of the public and apparently also internationally. Uh, but it's still, you know, they're not dominating, they're dominating the discourse. Um, they're starting to take more and more public opinion, but they're not necessarily folks who could win um a general election, certainly not in most of this country. Like you're seeing it in Colorado and New York and, you know, places where you'd expect to see it. But this is a big country. And by the way, like elections don't really get decided always in in places like New York and California. Like we are we are the places that notoriously, like unfortunately, in a general election, especially, don't have a say in who becomes the president.

Neri 55:09

So you Right. But you will have a say in Congress, yes. Well, in Congress, but also you will have a say, at least in the Democratic primary, who will be the candidate for president.

Shanie 55:20

By the way, those also start in uh in other like Iowa and places like that, right?

Neri 55:25

Like I remember I don't want to hear it.

Shanie 55:26

Yeah, in I'm just telling you, in the last election, um, I remember starting to think like who should I vote for in the Democratic primary? Because I um I'm a Democratic Party voter. And by the time it like got to New York, they already chose the candidate. I was like, okay, I don't know why I even bothered to look into any of you people because they they chose Joe Biden for me. So okay.

Neri 55:46

Um no, that's that's my question. I uh you know, kind of forecasting out past the midterms, definitely. How big of an issue will this remain? Israel meaning, uh, on the democratic side in democratic primary politics.

Shanie 56:04

I believe only 4% of American voters list foreign policy as the top issue they vote on. And some of those are gonna be people like me who are pro-Israel. So I most Americans do not vote because of Israel. I don't think even a lot of the people who voted for them in the primaries necessarily were voting because of Israel. Right. But it's taking up a lot of space in the discourse. Those are different things. Um I would say most Americans of any party are not voting about foreign policy. They're voting about the economy. And then there's a whole list of issues, and I can recite them to you, but foreign policy is really towards the bottom. I think you have just as many people who vote because of based on Russia-Ukraine as vote on Israel-Palestine, who choose that as their top choice. Yeah. Um, but it makes a it's like way less prominent in the discourse.

Neri 56:46

Yeah, I was gonna say nobody's nobody's getting filmed and yelled at because they're, you know, they're deemed uh whatever, pro-Russian or pro-Ukrainian in, you know, in San Francisco.

Shanie 56:57

That's correct. And a lot of these um folks have noted it. Um Jerry Nadler's seat was open. Michael Lasher just um won the primary for that seat. And he's he's pro-Israel, liberal Zionist, Jewish guy. And he remarked several times, like, it's exhausting and gross that it's he, I don't know that he used those words. He did use the word exhausting, that Israel's coming up constantly. Like, why am I being asked about Israel every single day of my life? I remember running in the United States of America, running on American issues about affordability and housing and the types of things people actually care about. And all I get asked about is Israel. So, yeah, it's definitely came up a lot. People are noting it. Um, and again, the it's not just about how much Israel is centered, it's the type of language that's being used and the APAC obsession. By the way, Jeremy Benamy from J Street to his credit also wrote a Substack article criticizing how people are talking about APAC. So it's, I mean, I think the whole, yeah, the whole progressive Jewish community, including those who talk a lot about AIPAC, are coming out to say, like, this is too far, this is too much, um, and it's anti-Semitic. And you have to stop. I don't know that anyone's listening. I have not seen Mamdani walk back his comments at all. I've only seen him double down. Um, and the same goes for the the folks he's supporting, unfortunately. But um, I I think we need to continue to speak with moral clarity about this.

Neri 58:15

We definitely should. Um Definitely should. And you're gonna say, you know, why are you talking about Israel all the time every day? We we get paid to talk about Israel all the time every day.

Shanie 58:25

Um Yeah, that's our job. It's not your job.

Neri 58:27

Yeah, just just tell them it's our job. Um but all kidding aside, um, and we'll bring it full circle. Why why does Israeli government policy matter to someone in whatever, Oklahoma? Why should it matter?

Shanie 58:42

Okay. So there's a nuance here. Okay. There's a nuance here in which um the US and Israel are very close friends and very close allies, and we are regularly hearing them tout the strong relationship. Now that's coming under threat now, but the truth is they have a really long-standing and intentional relationship that has drawn a lot of attention. So there's a layer of anti-Semitism that's obvious here, but there's also a layer of I don't see American presidents going on the news and saying, we love Ukraine, they're our best friends in the world, they're our greatest ally. I don't see them saying that about a lot of countries. Trump, you know, he says kind of whatever, but historically, you've had American presidents over decades saying that kind of thing and drawing attention to the close relationship, which inherently will bring a lot of scrutiny. So I think that that does need to be said. There is um, there is a layer of like both sides contributing to this. And sometimes it's on, it's on people like me to say, like, do you support, you know, people asking, do you support Israel's right to exist as a Jewish state? And now forcing people to have an opinion and say, well, is it it, it's an ethnic state, it's a religious state, what is it? Uh, does that mean I support Muslim states? Uh, right. Like, then they start to intellectualize it and think more about it. Again, a huge double standard. Israel is one Jewish state. I think there's 57 Muslim states. Um, whatever. There's a lot, there's a lot to say there. Obviously, I think it's silly to negate Israel's a Jewish state. Um, but my point is like, there, I think everybody is contributing to fueling this discourse, um, some in a defensive posture and some in an offensive posture, and it sort of perpetuates itself. Um, so there's sort of a lot happening here. Another piece that I have to say before we we close um a lot of what this like anti-Israel discourse and rhetoric is contributing to or is is founded in is the misunderstanding of what Jews are. The idea that Jews are a religion and not a people and not an and not an ethno religion. That misunderstanding leads people to the conclusion that Israel is a settler colonial project that fits very neatly into that box. Um, and it leads people to all sorts of misconstrued and uh confusion and um inaccuracies and incorrect beliefs about what Israel is and what it's doing and why it's doing it. So there's a lot of legitimate criticism too, and I spend a lot of my time dueling it out, and so do you. Um, but a lot of this is rooted in a foundational misunderstanding of who Jews are and what Jews are. That's now leading um to sort of that next layer of well, if Jews are a religion, then therefore why XYZ? So I think a lot of it comes to comes down to education.

Neri 1:01:10

Education and um, well, trying to counteract historical ignorance.

Shanie 1:01:15

Yeah, I would call it, I would call it ignorance.

Neri 1:01:17

Um we'll have to leave it there. Shani, good to see you. Hopefully, hopefully next time uh we'll spend uh 15 minutes on Israeli constitutional law and uh what what the government did or did not do. Uh and I promise I'll make it I'll make it less painful for you.

Shanie 1:01:37

I'm looking forward to it. I promise to look more interesting, interested next time.

Neri 1:01:41

That's fine. You know, um my audience uh is I would say it's it's an audience of one, but uh you're you're not the audience of one. I have uh I have one particular audience person, uh, and hopefully it'll be interesting for him. So we'll find out once this goes up. If I if I did it if I did a good enough job uh explaining it, um I'll let you know.

Shanie 1:02:01

Okay, perfect. Bionary, have a good week.