A Podcast Recommendation

Neri 0:00

If you're a listener of Israel Policy Pod, you already know that the hardest questions about Israel and Jewish life don't come with simple answers. That's why I want to recommend another podcast I think you'll love. It's called Identity Crisis from the Shalom Hartman Institute. Each week, Hartman president and host, Yuda Kurtzer, tackles the two things Jews talk about the most: identity and crisis, alongside guests like authors Dara Horn and Mati Friedman, Israeli icons like Adina Sussman and Shannon Street of Hadag Bahash, and Israel Policy Forum's very own, Michael Koplow. What I like about Identity Crisis is that it creates space for disagreement, complexity, and real moral debate. If you're looking for a podcast featuring great conversations about the essential issues facing Jewish life, I highly recommend checking out Identity Crisis with Yehuda Kurtzer, wherever you get your podcasts.

Election Stakes And Today’s Lineup

Neri 1:09

Election Day in Israel. There's no need for any long preamble or to stand-on ceremony. We all hopefully by now understand the stakes ahead of next Tuesday's election. But to preview what is likely to happen, we have on with us today our favorite regulars, Israel Policy Forum's very own chief policy officer, Michael Koplow, and our dear friend and former colleague, Shera Efron, a senior fellow at the Rand Corporation, and their distinguished Israel policy chair. Before

Reporter’s Notebook On West Bank Violence

Neri 1:41

we get to Michael and Sheera, let's do a quick reporter's notebook segment, non-election edition, where I take you behind the scenes and on the ground into the stories that are shaping current events and the big policy moves here in Israel and beyond. So the ongoing settler violence in the West Bank hit very close to home last Friday when Heidi Levine, a veteran photographer for the Washington Post, was brutally beaten by several dozen. There's no other word for it, Jewish terrorists, as she was covering the Palestinian Olive Harvest just north of Ramallah. She was thrown to the ground, kicked repeatedly, her finger was almost severed completely. She had puncture marks on her back, likely from nails attached to wooden clubs, uh broken ribs, uh bruised vertebrae, all her equipment, all her cameras, her cell phone, and her passport were stolen. As Heidi said afterwards from a Ramallah hospital bed, she likely wouldn't have survived if she hadn't been wearing a helmet and flak jacket. And yes, the flak jacket very clearly had the word press on it in big white letters. She also probably wouldn't have survived if some of her journalist colleagues hadn't come to her aid, and if some very courageous Palestinian youth hadn't charged and yes, thrown rocks to chase the settlers away and stopped the lynching. Again, there's no other word for it, of a 63-year-old grandmother. I've known Heidi for something like 15 years, since the days I used to uh run around with the photographers here, way back when. Uh, and for all those young, budding reporters out there, there's no better way to actually learn um how to be an onogram reporter than to actually tag along with the photographer packs. But uh Heidi was then and still is a world-class photojournalist reporting from all over Israel, from Gaza, the Middle East, and Ukraine during the war. She's also just the kindest and sweetest person you'll ever meet, which is uh why it pained and shocked and frankly disgusted me when immediately after the attack occurred last Friday, you already had people online who think they're quote unquote pro-Israel, alleging that it was all staged or fake or difficult to assess what really happened in the Central West Bank last Friday. Even the Israeli Prime Minister put out a shameful statement calling it, quote, an alleged assault. An alleged assault. As if Heidi attacked herself or faked the injuries that foot her first in a Ramallah hospital and then later on in an Israeli hospital. Um she faked an assault that what forced her to get surgery on her finger, skin graft. There's video literally of everything, the entire event. It was all filmed, yet it didn't really seem to matter, at least to some people, online and in the political system here in Israel. I went to see Heidi uh in the hospital here on Sunday. She was in good spirits and doing better than I expected, uh, and probably better than I'd be doing after that kind of attack. But it's going to be a weeks-long recovery at least. Uh and as she told me herself, all this, this entire incident made international news because an American journalist for a major news outlet happened to be attacked. But she even said this kind of stuff happens every day, every single day, to Palestinians on the West Bank, across the West Bank, including, by the way, earlier today. And nobody seems to care, least of all the current Israeli government and frankly the security forces here. Like I said, it's all shameful. But we're gonna wish Heidi a speedy recovery, and she'll be back on the ground snapping pictures in no time, I'm sure. With that, let's get to Michael and Sheera. Hi, Michael,

Why The Race Stays Tight

Neri 5:52

hi Shera. Welcome back to the podcast. Hi, guys. I'd ask you both, how are you feeling? How are you doing? But maybe we'll get to that at the end of the episode when I I ask you for your election predictions and post-election scenarios. But I hope you're doing you're doing well, all things considered, now that we're do you think our moods are that tied to post-election scenario? I know your moods are tied to the Israeli politics and what will happen next week. I know it for a fact.

Shira 6:17

I gotta tell you, I think it's worse than this. I feel like our bodies respond to this, like fatigue, muscle pain, uh uh infections. I have no doubt that all this, you know, tension in the last four years' buildup to this has uh not just uh mental and emotional effects, but also physical manifestation.

Neri 6:36

I agree with you 100%. And it's not just because we do this for a living. I think we're all uh heavily invested in what happens next week and in the weeks to come. Um and we'll get into what may happen a little later on. Um what I'd like to do is go through the four big key questions uh that'll make or break this election, uh, and then we'll get into predictions and whatnot. Um so without further ado, let's start with uh the first big question, and it may be the biggest one. Uh why is this election so close? Why is it so close? Um, if we believe the polls, the mainstream polls at least, uh, neither side, not the Netanyahu camp, uh, and not the opposition bloc led by Guy Deisenkott and Nizio Shar Party. Uh, neither one has a clear path to a majority, again, if we believe the polls. So uh let's start with the Netanyahu side of the aisle before we switch to the opposition. But Michael, um, I tried last week to venture a guess as to BB's enduring strength, such as it is, uh, despite everything, everything that has happened here uh over the past four years. Uh so let's start there. How do you explain the fact that BB, in theory, is still in it?

Michael 7:50

I think there are a couple of reasons. First, is that Israel's a very right-wing country. It was a very right-wing country before October 7th. It's a far more right-wing country after October 7th. And we all know that if it weren't for Netanyahu, if really anybody else was at the head of Likud, we'd be headed toward, you know, like a 70, 80-seat right-wing coalition that that would probably be a quote-unquote unity government comprised of some of the folks who are right now in the opposition. So Bibi Netzanyaho is still in it because he has this enormous structural advantage, and his side of the aisle has an enormous structural advantage. And it can't just simply be wiped away by the fact that a lot of folks on the right are angry with him over October 7th. The other part of this equation is that it isn't only about Israel being such a right-wing country, it's that also you don't really have parties that can operate as free agents. So Utsma'i Hudit and Hatsionuta Dati, which represent you know real populations inside of Israel, there's no world in which they can go with the opposition. It just doesn't fit their politics or or their worldview or their voters. And that's that's beyond the question of Netanyahu. And you know, the the Kharedim, maybe, maybe UTJ is is is switching or not switching sides, but becoming more ambivalent about uh sitting with Netanyahu and Likudin's coalition. But I don't see any signs that that Shas is ambivalent, and that too, that that goes beyond Netanyahu. So I think in some ways the question isn't actually like how is Bibi Netanyahu still around? How is it so close? Uh the question is almost why isn't the Israeli right running away with this? Because they have so many built-in advantages. And you know, Netanyahu himself, listen, he he liked and Netanyahu got 25% of the seats, a little more than 25% of the seats in the last NASA in the previous election. Again, if we believe the polls, that's going to drop by a lot. You know, it's going to drop from 32 seats to 20 seats, maybe, you know, maybe a little above, maybe a little below. So I think that really speaks to just how unpopular Netanyahu is. And again, if he wasn't there, this would just this would be a cakewalk for his side of the opposite.

Neri 10:22

A cakewalk, although Likud would probably crater. In other words, Likud itself wouldn't wouldn't likely be in the running to, in theory, lead the next government.

Michael 10:32

Maybe. I don't know about that. I'm not I'm not sure I agree.

Neri 10:35

Okay. Well, this is a hypothetical post-BB world that we are not yet in. Um by the way, for our audience, uh, you name-checked uh Atzmayudit and Tsunutit, that's um Jewish power and religious Zionism, that's Benvir, Itamar Benvir and Betzelis Matrich's far-right parties. And uh then you name-checked Shas and UTJ, that's uh the two hierarchy parties, Shas and United Torah Judaism. So all told that's the Netanyahu block in all of this. Uh, they also are the current, the current government. Um okay, Sheera, how do you explain both to yourself and to your friends and maybe others uh why this election is so close? How is Bibi still in theory in this? And uh we got the big news on Sunday that Trump endorsed Bibi Netanyahu uh for re-election, uh, this long, slavish endorsement having mostly to do with Iran. Um, but that came in uh this weekend. So uh will that have an effect also?

Shira 11:35

So I'll just respond to the uh on the Trump endorsement question first. According to all polls we saw, and yesterday polls came out. There are going to be more polls this week. This is the last week uh where it's allowed to run polls, to present uh polls before the elections. Uh so we have not seen anything in the polls indicating that this uh endorsement held Netanyahu. In fact, you're seeing a slight recovery of what you would call the change block or the opposition block. And I think it's already baked in. It would have been a surprise if Trump endorsed Isaac. Yes. I think that that could change something, but I think the assumption is that you know he's he's going with Netanyahu, and and I can't imagine anyone who has really shifted between sort of the blocks because of a Trump endorsement or not, then or this. But I just want to um the premise of your question, why is it so close? Objectively, it's not so close. The Netanyahu coalition now has 64 seats in the Knesset in any poll that is a poll that actually collects data and analyzes the data, right? Except for I'm putting channel 14 aside, which is would be the equivalent to US uh Newsmax or One America, it's not even Fox, right? Uh Netanyahu's blog, right? And if you vote for Ben Git, you you vote for a blog, uh, in addition to what Michael said about the Liquid Party itself not being very popular, um has lost around 14 seats. That is a lot. We're talking about being 40, you know, uh he doesn't have higher than 51, 52 in the most positive scenario. One of the reasons that we call this deadlock is because this uh following, and we've spoken about it, we spoke about this last time, this whole idea of like only the Jews get to decide.

SPEAKER_02 13:27

No Arab Israelis.

Shira 13:28

So it's deadlock only between the Jewish parties. And this is, I think, a big difference to say because in terms of Israeli citizens eligible to vote, Netanyahu is it's not as close. Okay, if we would count the Arabs as equal. So that's one thing.

Neri 13:44

By the way, Shira, I should say they have, in theory, 68 seats in the current coalition, right? With Gidon Tsar, and so it's 68. So it's because they've cratered even farther than what we imagine, at least in the polls.

Shira 13:56

Right. But that but that happened afterwards, right? I'm just saying, like in terms of who you're right. In terms of ballots initially four years ago when when this government coalition was formed. Why is it so tied between the Jews, which I very resentful of the fact that we're falling into this trap or discussing it, but there's no choice because this is how they do it. Exactly. I think there are a few things. First of all, um, as um Michael said, this is a right-wing government. You have around half a million new voters, and the younger generation in Israel is perceived as being uh even more to the right than the pair generation. I think among among the Handam, I heard a statistic that we have to verify, but it's around 140,000 of uh Haredi uh, you know, who are also going straight to the the Netanyahu's block and really just so so this is this is baked in uh structurally. There is um uh a narrative that is uh controlled by Netanyahu. There is the media that is not completely free here, as as we know, right? There's self-censorship of the media. Um, and there is, and the fact that we're it's not just a right-wing government, we're still in war, technically for Israelis, right? We're still in war, and around war, you always have this sort of hawkish uh uh sentiment, which is affiliated with with Netanyahu, and despite what happened here, I don't know how, but he's still perceived as sort of like I'm the only one who could deal with Iran and others. And part of it, I think, is also because of the opposition. Israel, except for when Netanyahu is in the opposition, Israelis don't know how to be in the opposition. The left, the center, they're just it's it's a it's a spineless, feckless opposition.

Neri 15:40

We'll get to them in just a second, trust me.

Shira 15:42

But I think that's that's also part of the reason. Um, so in a sense, you have both all these things together and and and a threshold, which we can get into what it does it mean to actually uh uh be able to form a representative government, you know, uh uh party in in the Knesset. You have a combination of structural factors um and just the personalities involved that explains why the Jews are kind of tied around the vote.

Neri 16:12

Right. Very well-taken caveat. But like you said, uh we don't make these stupid rules, quote unquote, use that word very loosely. It's the opposition itself, um, or at least parts of the opposition that have uh chained themselves to, at least for now, uh saying that they will not, quote unquote, use the Arab-Israeli parties to form a coalition or even potentially cede a minority government. Again, we'll get into these scenarios in in just a second. Um I I will say, I mean, I obviously got into this in last week's episode, like my kind of explanation as to BB's um enduring strength, such as it is, and the fact that he he's still at least in theory in it. Um, but I will say I I went uh down to Zderot uh near the Gaza border last week to report a piece on exactly this topic, right? I was going to hunt for BB voters uh in Zderot, which was really kind of ground zero uh at least that morning of October 7th with the white Hamas pickup trucks. That's the first inkling that we uh as Israelis got that something was horribly, horribly wrong. Um and historically, a very Likud city, a very kind of right-wing city, I think went 70, 80% to the current coalition. So I thought it was a perfect place to go and figure out what was happening and get an explanation. Um and it was it was pretty surprising that uh everyone I spoke to, except for one person, was voting Likud. Right? It wasn't like you got there and, you know, I I it wasn't like I set it up ahead of time to just talk to Likud voters. I walked into a cafe and some of the guys were uh were drinking Red Bull vodkas and beer at 11 in the morning and um clearly had uh, well, other types of jobs, if if any jobs. Uh, all of them Likud. Right. It wasn't like they were voting for Lieberman uh or even Smotric or Benvir. It was Likud down the line. Uh and then, you know, I walked into another place, uh, all of them except for one person who was voting Isencott, all of them voting Likud, which which wasn't a given, right? You could show, you could you could have shown up and been like, you know, well, uh, we're not voting at all, right? We're very angry with this government, we're angry over October 7th, we're angry for a million other reasons. We used to vote Likud all the time. We're not voting. That that wasn't um, again, it's not a scientific study, obviously, but this is not the impression I got. Uh, and everyone to a T said the same thing as to why, right? So you're sitting in Sterot, and the first thing they'll tell you is like, look, it's been a year and a half since the last rocket was fired from Gaza for the first time in 20 years. So in their minds, they believe Netanyahu when he, like you said, gets up there and says, you know, I've I've won the war for you, right? We've killed Yahya Sinwar and Mohammed Diff and Hassan Asrala and Ayatollah Khamani, and look at everything we've done across the Middle East. What does Netanyahu say? We've we've changed the face of the Middle East. Uh they're sitting there in Zderot, and they're like, you know, yeah, it was a it was a bad morning. I'll get to that in a second. But uh, but uh they believed Netanyahu, uh, you know, the victories across the battlefields of the Middle East. Number one. Number two, that very bad morning was not obviously the fault of the Prime Minister or the government. Um, it was the fault of the army. And this may come as a shock to the army and the security chiefs. Uh, this may come as a shock to people not in Israel, but uh you talk to Netanyahu supporters and coalition supporters, and they truly believe there were traitors from within the IDF and the Shin Bet that proverbially opened the gate for Hamas.

unknown 19:44

Right.

Neri 19:45

Um they do not understand how October 7th happened without that um that that happening uh on the inside. And and it started off as like a whisper campaign even way back in October 2023. Uh and now it's kind of taken as a as almost uh a fact, right? A fact in in these people's minds, a concrete fact. Uh traders from within. So yeah, what do you what do you want from the prime minister? The IDF allowed October 7th to happen. Um and then the third thing, and this is you know long-standing, uh the ethnic, the ethnic kind of sociological part of it, right? That uh they'll sit there and tell you about their grandparents who were discriminated against by the neighboring kibbutzim and the Ashkenazi elite, uh, and that is very, very present still. Uh and they see someone like Gadi Isencott, who's really Moroccan. Like his parents immigrated from Morocco, he was born in Tiberias, grew up in a lot, uh, the periphery. They're like, he's just a puppet for the Ashkenazi elite. Right?

Michael 20:50

Or or in or in Nino and Magal's gross terminology, you know, we're we're worse than a puppet. Yeah, right. Worse than a puppet.

Neri 20:58

Um, yes. An ape. Yeah, uh an ape. I mean, it's uh not even a whisper campaign, it's it's downright discriminatory. And at least for now, nobody uh on Netanyahu's side or the right wing here sees any kind of contradiction in being the quote-unquote champions of the Mizrahi underclass uh and yet tarring the first potential Mizrahi prime minister in Israeli history. Um so yeah, and they and they you know, and they look at Netanyahu in comparison, like, well, you know, he's he's the smartest. Literally, they'll tell you, he is the smartest, he's the most capable. Uh so the per He's English. Yeah, yeah, his English. Um so that's what I found down down in Steroth. And uh, you know, a lot of it is down to Netanyahu's political talents and the Netanyahu media machine here that has been nonstop uh for the past three years on these topics. Uh and it it's had an effect. So I came back from Storot very depressed. I was I was texting people, I was like, oh, this is this is not good. In theory, you'd think that at least some people would have crossed the crossed the aisle.

Michael 22:04

Aaron Powell Did you detect any growing love or support for Amchai Israel in Ofair Vinter?

Neri 22:09

Uh I did not. No.

Michael 22:10

Again, I like it's not like I Which by the way would would which would which would make sense in the context of we don't trust the IDF, right? Even if it's Ofair Vinter.

Neri 22:19

There was one person that I spoke to who um wasn't voting Likud or Netanyahu because they weren't right wing enough, and he was voting for uh Moshe Faglin, who's running with Betel Smotrich because he's he's really right wing and will we'll get things done. Um No, it was interesting. Look, it was unscientific, but I came back very depressed because uh it looks like Netanyahu was able to at least preserve some level of base support. So um yes, that was my uh my field trip to Steroto.

Shira 22:49

Um I have to tell you, I I was just in a just to in this I was you you got into a lot of detail on this. It's very good what uh what uh you elaborate on what I said about it's now controlling the narrative and it's but I just just another anecdote like your stereotyp. So I was in a closed lecture by a very, very, very, very, very senior uh former IDF authorizer. And um he said that um you know, and it's something shared by him and his other former senior command that every room they go into, they ask the audience and is it big audiences like uh uh who in this room thinks there was a treason because it was a betrayal, right, by the IDF. And it's around 40% of people that raise their hands in every in every room.

Neri 23:33

It goes without saying, this is like beyond kind of the politics, right? This is like undermining the very foundation of the the compact with the IDF, the people's army, civil military relations. I mean, literally nothing nothing is sacred in BB's bid to remove himself from any responsibility for October 7th, A, and then B, in his bid to cling on to power. Um so he'll literally burn down the public's trust in their military and in their security forces uh to get the job done for him. Um let's uh switch sides and go to uh the opposition and try to explain also their effectiveness um or maybe lack thereof in uh opening a gap, at least in the polls, between them and the Netanyahu bloc, um, and why the election is theoretically so close.

Can The Opposition Sell Change

Neri 24:25

Uh Shira, you want to start this time? You you kind of alluded to it uh in your, I don't want to call it a diatribe, but you you hinted at the fact that you are not so thrilled, not so satisfied with how the opposition has run this campaign.

Shira 24:40

But we have to say that first of all, like Gary Yazinkot, who is heading the block, he's not even like formal opposition, right? He heads a party that he's doing really well, and there was not even a party a year ago, and he's now heading this. So I'm talking about more uh historically, traditionally being, you know, the opposition here and basically uh caving in to Nathaniel's pressures, entering uh unity governments whenever he wants to, agreeing to whatever he wants. This is something that's also just like it's not specifically about those four parties forming the change block, right? We're talking about Gadi Eisenkot with the HR Party, Neftali Bennett, who is also not a Knesset member at the moment, right? He's opposition in in, I mean, he's aspiring to be prime minister again, but he's not in the opposition at the moment. Yer Lepide's partner, who is the head of the opposition, um, and then Yeri Golan and Viktor Lieberman. So just talking more generally about the opposition. I gotta say, I waver on this because on the one hand, I say, look, they got every gift in the world. They could just go and attack this government every day, whether it's on the failure to um the fact the war is over, it's over. I mean, maybe you have this low-intensity thing, but we still have reality where Hamas is around and Hezbollah is around, and we have uh Ayatollah regime in Iran, and you have um uh crises like fly Dubai, flight only by sheer miracle, right? And the the the the the the the I don't know what to call it, the heroism of Israeli uh the passengers uh were saved. So showing this and the IDF and the economic situation and isolation. And I mean, they have just like gifts. This this government is a is a does the gift that doesn't stop giving in terms of you want to have a country campaign, on the other hand, and we're not seeing them as uh actively attacking. On the other hand, maybe this boringness, and you know you live here too, Nary, for the most consequential elections of our lifetime so far, um, you don't feel this energy on the streets, right? And we know Israelis can be energetic. We've seen the protests before protests on the hostages, the protests before in democracy. Where where are all the people? Where is this energy? But with all this like boredom that we're seeing around, as I said before, Ghadi Isencot's party didn't even exist as a party a year ago, and even I mean even less there a year ago. And he's able to establish himself as sort of a contender or a leader, someone who has profiles in every major newspaper uh in the world, and and um someone who could form the next uh coalition. Naftali Bennett, uh, who was uh in decline, he is a very aggressive campaign in terms of just like going to speak to people, um, and his numbers are picking up a little bit. Yeah, Ian Golan, you know, sort of the Israeli left that everyone says the Israeli left is dead and his merits and labor, he seems to be pretty stable and even increasing in the polls. Um and the bigger Lieberman, who knows, because he always underperforms. So they are there, some of them are doing something that is okay uh uh in terms of getting to where they are now. And even the strategy with the Arabs, and we we can talk about it if we talk to about the Arabs and Lieberman, but if you listen between the words to what Gandhi Eisencott says, the others, they're not completely disqualifying this idea of like having Arab support for this. So it seems to be some some wiggle room. I'm adding to my diet tribe that they may be doing something right that we're just not getting it's gonna be phenomenal in the ballots.

Neri 28:22

Right. Look, uh we'll all be a lot smarter in a week's time or next Wednesday or you know, after election day, uh, and then we'll kind of reverse engineer what they did right and did wrong. Uh it is interesting, like you said, Shiro, you don't really feel the energy and the kind of sweeping uh not charisma, but just like the sweeping kind of power of of a a new different prime ministerial candidate like Gaudi Eisencott. Um look, I was too young to kind of be here uh be around when Isaac Rabin was like you know, swept up to be prime minister. But in theory, that it should have been kind of the same way, and it and it's not. Um it's not. Now, again, they'll tell you, okay, you need to run a more cautious campaign, because to Michael's earlier point, it's a more right-wing country, and you kind of don't want to piss off the soft right-wing voters that you want to attract to your own side. So it's a very fine line that you need to walk uh in order to hopefully get enough votes and seats.

Shira 29:21

Um this the sleepiness also just felt just like one of us, it's not just about them, right? Where are people canvassing? What are people intersections? Where are the streets? Like it does not feel you don't feel the energy.

Neri 29:33

And I'll tell you, a lot of people you talk to, I don't know if it's the same with you, Sheera and you, Michael, talking to your Israeli friends, but like a lot of um quote unquote normals, right? Like normal, you know, our like our social milieu type of Israelis, uh, they're still undecided. So they haven't themselves been convinced of like Isencott or someone in the opposition change block, which is which is both uh shocking, surprising, annoying, frustrating. But it speaks to maybe the fact that they haven't uh ran a convincing enough campaign.

Michael 30:06

Um Michael, what do you think? Wait, hang on. You're saying that people are undecided between which uh which party in the block, or they're undecided between which block they're gonna vote for?

Neri 30:16

They're not voting for the coalition parties and Netanyahu block, fine. Right, but they're not they haven't been fully convinced by the people in the proper change opposition camp. Uh and that they may, you know, they may go to one of the we'll talk about the third-way middle parties, um, or you know, potentially not vote. I don't know. Or, you know, ultimately maybe come down on the side of someone in the opposition. But for right now, uh they're still undecided, which again, for the most consequential and faithful election in Israeli history, you you would think that there would be more motivation to get out there and replace the government from those types of Israelis. Uh again, it's anecdotal, but it's more than one person I've spoken to, which, like I said, is uh infuriating.

Shira 31:00

Doesn't exist in my I swear, Michael, you're gonna let you just want to be optimistic for one second. I will say, though, that everyone in our social circle and family circle um who does not live in this country and there are many um is coming to vote.

Neri 31:15

That that I have heard about.

Shira 31:16

So there is an energy somewhere, just not here.

Michael 31:20

Yeah, I'll say the the energy among Israelis on my side of the ocean. Yeah, it's like everybody is going back. You know, either they made these plans a while ago or they're trying to figure out now how they can get there. But uh very few Israelis on this side of the ocean in my orbit and who I've spoken to who are not going back. And and the ones who the like the few who are not, it's because you know their their spouses forbid it because it's gonna it's gonna be like a $5,000 expensive. And they're coming back not to vote for Bibi Netanyahu. Oh no, certainly not to vote for Bibi Netanyahu. And to your point, some of them are undecided still about who they will vote for, but you know, it's it's rock rock low BB. Just not BB.

Shanie 32:03

Talking about Israel has gotten so hard. People are angry and dug into their positions, and most of the time it feels like the conversation is over before it even begins. But what if we kept talking? I'm Shitty Reichmann from Israel Policy Forum, and this is Disputed Territory, a podcast for real talk about Israel.

SPEAKER_06 32:20

I don't find that shaming people works very well and getting them to listen to you. What I try to do is at least open up a space that people can listen. I also try to ask people questions to like push them to ask themselves to evaluate their own ideologies.

Shanie 32:37

We can believe that there needs to be an is a Jewish state and also work every day to make it better. And I see my work as really digging in there, trying to fix the hardest and most challenging parts of Israel. And it doesn't take away from loving it.

SPEAKER_00 32:50

You can call these things wrong, you can call these things unacceptable, one, two, etc., but you should not dehumanize an entire society.

Shanie 32:59

We're going to talk about Zionism, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Jewish identity, the relationship between American Jews and Israel, and the questions that don't always have easy answers. You'll hear from people with different perspectives. Sometimes I'll agree with them and other times they won't. But that's the point.

SPEAKER_03 33:15

When I criticize Antonio and Began fear and the settlements, and when I speak about a two-state solution, all of this is because of my love for the Jewish people.

SPEAKER_02 33:23

I feel like my responsibility is to be a diaspora Jew and to stay compassionate and to stay nuanced. Why that is so incredibly difficult in this moment, I don't know.

Shanie 33:35

I believe the conversations about Israel don't have to drive us apart. They might actually be the only productive way forward. This is disputed territory, real talk about Israel. Follow along on Apple, YouTube, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts.

Neri 33:51

Okay. Um and with regard to the opposition's campaign, I mean, I I'll just say by way of anecdote, by way of Durot, the two issues that Netanyahu, you know, they were voting Netanyahu, but the two issues that they did raise that were a problem for them. Number one, the Haredi draft issue, uh, which is a real liability for the current coalition for obvious reasons. So you, you know, on that issue, uh the opposition, Isencott, Bennett, Lieberman, even the ergolan are are pressing BB very hard, fine. The second issue that you heard from people, the economic issue, which you uh don't hear at all from the opposition, and I think they missed an opportunity there to actually press their advantage, uh, given the fact that they're uh running against uh incumbent government.

Michael 34:35

So I have a few a few points on the opposition. One, I think their message is muddled in all sorts of ways. So, you know, they're they're clear about Kharedi draft, they're clear about an October 7th Commission of Inquiry, but they can't even agree on themselves who their candidate is for prime minister. They can't agree amongst themselves whether a minority government is legitimate or not, whether sitting with Arabs is legitimate or not, whether accepting support from Arab parties on the outside is legitimate or not. They don't have a united front on these things. There are differences between them, both what they say publicly, and I suspect maybe privately too. So if you're looking at them, this doesn't seem like a group that necessarily has its act together. Second, I think they've they've made some even technical mistakes. You know, we don't have to, we talked about the Bennett and Lapide merger right after it happened, and we don't have to rehash that, but that was a mistake. Uh it was a mistake at the time, and it's a mistake in hindsight. And Gadi Eisencote is a very compelling figure, but as you point out, Nairy, certainly not the most charismatic. And they're up against effectively a charismatic cult leader. That's that's what Netanyahu is to folks on his side, right? Um, and they just don't they don't have this same advantage of of slavish devotion to to their guy, right? And and I I'm not I'm not saying that I'm not saying that as like a criticism of the Netanyahu side. Like that, that's an advantage that they have. Um and they and they don't have sort of this, it's not just slavish devotion to to their guy. It's also just there's a very clear, coherent message on the coalition side. Everybody knows who the leader is and what he is going to do, and you just don't have that on the opposition. I also think, Nara, your point about the economy is is a big one. You know, there was a poll that came out yesterday asking Israelis what they're gonna vote on, and economy was the first thing. Now it was like almost tied with you know October 7th issues. But the point is when you still have a third of Israelis saying that this was the plurality, that the thing they cared most about is the economy. Like, yes, that is also in some ways an October 7th question, and a question about reservists and small businesses and the subsidies that are going to the Khaedim for sure. But yeah, like does the opposition have a have a strong, clear, compelling economic message aside from we're going to end subsidies to Kha Redim who don't draft? I'm not sure that they that they really do. And there are things that the opposition has has done well. I mean, I really have to give credit to Yayir Golan, like the Israeli left was dead and buried, and he is representing it and growing it in strength, you know, to up to a point, again, a post-October 7th country, but there are some positive things that are going on on their side, and and really we've said this before that it always has to be repeated and can't be stressed enough. If they manage to break the basic structure of Israeli politics, whereby sitting with Arab parties is legitimate and the changed government did it once, and an opposition government that takes power if they can do it will almost certainly have to do it again. That will also be an enormous accomplishment beyond just the question of who wins and who loses this election. But I do think that they have some disadvantages and they have made some mistakes. And ultimately, it seems to me, I know we're not at predictions yet, but whether they pull this off or not is going to depend a lot on the fact that the parties at the threshold are not on their side. They're all on the other side. And, you know, last time it was the opposite dynamic in 2022, Meretz didn't make the threshold, Balad stupidly ran, even though everybody knew that they weren't going to make the threshold. And this time, all of the downside risk of small parties is on the right side. So they may end up being the beneficiary of good luck, or they may not, really. It depends on two or three parties that are either in the other camp or not committed to their camp. Um, but I think their record here is mixed.

Neri 38:51

So uh Balad, by the way, for audience, uh, it's like a small, more radical Arab-Israeli political party, um, really like an Arab Nationalist Party that's now part of the joint Arab list. Uh, yes, it and the left-wing emerits party did not make it over the threshold in 2022 and burnt tens of thousands of votes, even more. Um Hajj for for the uh for the left, for the well, the non-Nanyahoo camp. That's a good transition. By the way, we should mention and give the opposition credit. Yes, they did organize themselves much better this time. Uh you know, four parties, very clear, none of them in danger of uh not crossing the electoral threshold. Um each one kind of uh has its own lane for the most part.

Small Parties That Could Decide It

Neri 39:36

Um and that differs. This goes to my third question, which is uh the the uh the other parties, right? So you have the Netanyahu camp and the change camp, um, and then you have the others, not dairy, not meat, whatever, whatever you want to call them, that will likely make or break the election because Israeli elections are not uh made or made or broken at the very top anymore. This used to be the case, not anymore. They're made at the very bottom with the smaller parties. So this is where you have Ofil Vintel, uh former IDF Brigadier General, his uh Amcha Israel party, uh, and you also have uh Yuaz Hendel and uh the economist Zaliha, Yeron Zaliha's uh reservist economy party. So they join forces. So those are the two ones uh in the running in danger. I mean, some people you talk to say that Smart Church's religious Zionism is also in danger, but that's a different. We should we should only be so lucky. We should only be so lucky. Well, uh Betty Gantz last night, Monday night, uh pulled out of the race, so we don't have to talk to talk about him anymore. Small mer small mercy.

Michael 40:42

Let's pour pour one out for let's pour one out for my favorite, my favorite topic.

Neri 40:45

Small mercies. Uh we'll we'll do that, uh we'll do a separate podcast just uh recapping his political career. But basically those two parties, so the conventional wisdom, and I stress conventional wisdom, is that Oferovintel is leaning more towards, if he crosses the threshold, going with Netanyahu, and Hendel and Zaliha potentially going with the Eisencott change block because they really don't like the Herodes, but I don't trust Hendel or Zaliha. So uh Michael, let's start with you this time. What do you what do you think of those two parties? Will they make it in? And if they make it in, what do you think they they will actually do?

Michael 41:20

Let's start with a a big important caveat, which is that every single poll that's done in Israel has a margin of error of 4% or more. And these parties are both polling below 4%, right? The threshold is 3.25%. So they're literally in the margin of error of every single poll that's done. So I have no idea if they're gonna make it or not, and neither does anybody else, right? The polls that put them in versus putting them out, it's just about each specific poll's model and their guess about what the sample, what the correct sample is. So let's sort of get that out of the way. And it's also it's partially why I asked you if you heard anybody talking about uh Amcha Israel and Stay Road, because honestly, like if there's sort of a buzz about them, then you know, maybe that means that they're in better shape. And if there isn't, then maybe that means that they're not. But again, we don't really know. So, you know, you know, Vinter has said that now multiple times he is going to recommend Netanyahu and only Netanyahu for Prime Minister. I know there's rumors going around about something he's cooking up with Lieberman.

Neri 42:22

Those are rumors perpetuated by Velikud.

Michael 42:28

So yeah, I think I think he's I think he's safely in the Netanyahu camp. I don't I don't see that as a as a power of party. He's not really a free agent. And Don Zalicha seem to be free agents, and I think there are arguments on both sides. You know, Hendel was the communications minister, right, in the change government, but he's also a long time right now.

Neri 42:50

Not the change government, I think it was the Gans. The Gans the Gantz government government.

Michael 42:56

Yeah, correct. Right, right. Uh so and then, you know, and then he associated himself with the with the change block and um in the in the next election, I believe. So but you know, he's again a longtime right-winger, so who really knows? Zalicha, you know, I I don't know. That guy seems a little a little bit uh iconoclastic, let's say. I think the one thing I'm confident of saying is that certainly these two parties are not committed to the opposition block. That's that's for sure. So, you know, maybe Hendel and Zaliha actually are free agents and Vinter is not. Maybe they're both really properly in the BB block, but neither of them is on the change side of the aisle, which is why, as I said before, the the downside risk for these small parties not making it is, to my mind, all on the coalition side of the aisle. You know, Hendel and Zaliha talk about wanting to force a unity government and how they won't sit with the Kharedim and they won't sit with the Arabs. Well, a unity government is not coming, despite what Bouch. Herzog would like. With Netzanyahu where he is, unless he's gone, I just don't see a world in which there's going to be a unity government. And so that means that Henzel and Zalika are pushing for something that is just not a real possibility. So I just I don't I don't think that if they make the threshold, I don't see them as being decisive. I think the way in which they may be decisive is if they don't make the threshold, and that will, because I'm assuming most of their votes are coming from the coalition side of the spectrum, that will just put up, that will, that will push up the number of seats that the change block, the opposition block has. And if they're closer to 56, 57, even 58, to me that makes a government far more possible. Whereas if they're in at 51, 52, 53, I think a deadlock becomes more possible. So that's where I see this as relevant, not about any decision that they actually make themselves.

Neri 44:50

That's a good overview. Shera, what do you think of these uh two smaller parties hovering at, near, under the threshold?

Shira 45:00

Um so I agree with Michael, and I think there's a slight difference. I mean, Vinter is in the coalition block, and um, as we are recording, there's an attempt with Smotrich and Atanyao to try to uh pull a guns and actually uh drop out of the race, which I don't think he will do. It's not the guns case. Uh and there's and there's a real question about him, but I think either way that will affect numbers if he passes or he doesn't pass or he withdraws from the race. Um and um I think with uh Hendel and Zlicha, uh, we have to remember it's also Enact Wilf uh is with them. And they are not unified. I mean, it's not a cohesive party, they're like technical blocks that are attached. So I think Hendel, uh we can't count on him. He's not a Netanyahu person, not because of Netanyahu, because of the Haredi. His whole platform is the sharing the burden, the draft law, equal service. So it's hard for me to see him going with a coalition that has the Haredi parties. Uh Zlicha, a different story. In At Welf, I mean, a different story also. Uh but I and I don't know if you did this one-on-one for um viewers, and it gets a little bit like nerdy and technical, but we have to understand there are around 7 million uh registered voters for the upcoming elections. The previous elections you had 70% turnout on average, in the Arabs, it was lower, and I think I hope we'll get to it because it's going to be a change. I hope I think there's gonna be a change this time. So with the 3.25% um threshold to be able to form a party and enter the Knesset, we're talking about it's around 171,000 votes. And if the if the voter turnout is higher, and it could be higher, um, because that's what people are expecting, it you would even need even higher numbers uh to make it into the Knesset. So a waste from the perspective of a wasted votes that go to these two parties uh could definitely shift uh the numbers in real time. And and and that's why I think there's there's pressure on both of them, the pressure on Ghans work, there's pressure on both of them to actually withdraw from the race. Uh, that's one thing. There's this tiny party that is called, what is it, the public Haredi, Haredi Public, Haredi Public. Leitner. There's also uh a campaign by the Haredi parties uh to uh uh for them to withdraw from the race, also because it's around, I think, 1%, they don't they don't make even close to the threshold, but it's also going to be a waste of votes. So um they can be kingmakers. I don't know anyone voting for these parties. Uh it's hard for me to see them. And and you see, and as we're seeing more polls now that show that they don't crop cross the threshold, this also desentivizes people to vote for them. So I guess in the next few days we will see if they have a chance.

Neri 47:54

Yeah, it's a self-fulfilling prophecy. Uh and I think the hope is that if there are more polls throughout this week until Friday, the last polls come out that show that, say, Hendel and Zaliha are below the threshold, then the all those kind of undecided that may be flocking to something that's not dairy or not meat, uh, will come back into the uh opposition fold, right? That those are potential kind of opposition voters or people who, you know, may not vote but may may have been kind of disaffectedly crude voters. That that's the the theory at least. Um, I don't think there's any chance either party, either Ofel Winter or Hendel and Zadija, drop out. I think they're they're they're in too deep. So it remains to be seen uh whether they can make it over. And uh this brings us to uh I don't even know what question we're on now. I think number four. Uh

Arab Turnout And Coalition Math

Neri 48:45

the the Arab Israeli parties and really the Arab Israeli vote, right? That's really where the spare capacity, the most spare capacity is in terms of turnout. Where last election it was 50% turnout in Arab Israeli towns and cities. Um and now the hope is maybe it'll jump up to 65%, which will tick up the overall um kind of national turnout, and that'll make it, like you said, Shira, even harder for these smaller parties to get over the threshold because it will just require more more actual votes. So uh let's go to the Arab Israeli parties. Um number one, are we hopeful that the turnout will will increase? Um and then secondly, you have like the joint Arab list uh and then Mansur Abbas's Rom. Um do we think that at least Mansur Abbas's Rom will be a viable uh partner for any future opposition coalition, change coalition?

Michael 49:46

Michael? I think that last one is the easiest answer. Yes. They're doing everything they can to make themselves a viable partner, whether it's putting Joav Segalovich, uh a Zionist Jewish candidate with a security background as the number two on their list, or whether it's Mansur Abbas repeatedly saying that he wants to be part of a government, or the fact that they very clearly meet Gaudi Eisencoat's test that he laid out for parties that can be included in the government in terms of acknowledging Israel as a Jewish and democratic state, condemning Hamas and October 7th, being willing to submit to national service, you know, not necessarily IDF, but national service. So they are doing literally everything in their power to make themselves kosher to opposition blocks to be literally kosher, uh, to be to be part of uh part of a government. How they'll do, listen, I I would think that Arab voters would be super motivated because this government has been very bad for them. I mean, i in almost every single way, in terms of budgets, in terms of crime in the Arab sector, in terms of the just complete and unvarnished racism that comes from Itamar Ben Gvir and other folks in the coalition toward Israeli Arabs. Again, we're not talking about Gaza or West Bank or or Palestinian issues. We're talking about Israeli issues for this is more than 20% of the population. So I would think that they would be highly motivated. With that said, you know, again, a poll from yesterday looking asking people about turnout showed an expected turnout of 70%. So similar to last time, which speaks to what you were talking about earlier, Nary, about that this kind of seems like it should be an overwhelming just wave of wave of enthusiasm in the election and doesn't seem to be reflected. And there, the the Arab voters, I think their turnout number, you know, predicted in this poll was something like 62% or 63%. So I don't think that would be, that's certainly not, you know, their low mark, but I don't think that would be their high mark either. So I'm not really sure. I it doesn't seem like there's real danger of Ra'am or the joint list falling below the threshold. But it also doesn't seem as if they are so motivated in this election that they are going to break previous turnout numbers. So I'm I'm not sure what to make of it.

Neri 52:26

Yeah. And we should say, um, again, we'll be smarter next week, but if uh Arab turnout is not as high as uh we all hope, and that would be required for well, maybe fomenting real change, uh, it may be because that enthusiasm in Arab communities um uh has not materialized because they don't see a partner even on the opposition side. Right? Uh that if you had someone really campaigning and being like, yeah, this time you're definitely gonna be at least actively part of the coalition or we're gonna take you into account, um you don't really you don't really have that. Uh so maybe if you did, you'd galvanize more Arabs to to go to the polls. But um again, we'll we'll be a lot smarter next week. Shera, what do you think the Arab-Israeli angle to to next week? And I mean, really, uh, we're talking about all these kind of various permutations, they could make or break the election.

Shira 53:19

So I think we we have to understand that in historical context, right? The the vote uh average voter turnout in the Arab Street has been around 50%, it'd been years even lower. In 2021, it was 44% the lowest turnout. In 2020, it was historically high turnout. This was the 64.8%, almost 65%, and that was when the uh uh you had a joint list.

Neri 53:41

A real joint list.

Shira 53:42

And um a real joint list. And I think this is uh something that is also could be a little bit predictive for now because they are organized very well, the Arab parties that they're running jointly, but also leaving Ram uh some separate maneuverability to support uh a Jewish government. So in that regard, I think there's there's been a lot of like uh structural organization in the Arab Street to to position uh the parties uh to be able to you know to respond to voters and for the voters to be able to, I mean, at least to feel represented. The other thing that I think is is that we are there's different polling that expects around what you said 63%, 64%, above 60% a turnout in the Arab Street. And the explanation sort of that I've heard for this, and you know, just speaking anecdotally with taxi drivers and others, but there's always like, you know, all these Zionist governments have been more or less the same for us since it's Hakar Beam's uh government and you know, uh after his assassination, uh, after his killing. Like there was no uh party, and all that you were mostly the same until this government came through. And then for the Arabs, they've they saw how bad things can really be. And you know, it's pretty remarkable that they can have real impact, right? With their vote, with a piece of paper, they can prevent Winter from being in the coalition, they can prevent Ben Gvir from being in the government. I mean, this is a very powerful message. Think about it like how much in our lives we control that has, you know, sort of a direct, they're telling you you have a lot of agency here. Whether this is also actually gonna translate into them showing up to vote, um, that their votes not gonna, that there's not gonna be accused of fraud, and you you hear this campaign, right? There's gonna be a lot of fraud and uh uh it's gonna be voter suppression, who knows what's gonna happen. But if this is gonna turn into translate into um voter turnout in practice remains to be seen. I'm not encouraged but by what Michael said now, because we know that in polling, when you're just asked, are you gonna vote? Uh people tend to answer yes because they think this is the the right thing to do. It's pretty embarrassing to say you're not gonna vote, right? Exercise your democratic right. But in practice, voters, it's around 10% less than uh than the response of you know what would you self-reporting on or your your your plans to vote. So if Michael, you're talking about 60 or less and it's 10% uh pure that we're not gonna be in uh good shape or the Arab's not gonna be in good shape, but we'll see.

Michael 56:21

I'd be I'd be shocked if it ends up in the 40s. I'd as I said I don't know. Yeah, I think I think if if it's at 60 or above, then that bodes well for the opposition.

Neri 56:33

If it's below 60, then it's true and uh increases the chances of the the smaller right-wing parties to to make it in. Um we'll see. We'll see. Um without further ado, uh prediction time.

Predictions And Post-Election Scenarios

Neri 56:48

Not just about what you think. Yeah, Shira is already shrugging for those not watching on YouTube. Uh but predictions not just in the sense of what you think will happen next Tuesday, but what uh the f subsequent weeks, or I don't want to say months, but subsequent weeks will uh will uh maybe provide in terms of uh uh government or not. Um and I'm also very curious uh to get your takes. Uh I guess my opinion, you can disagree, but the linchpin for any uh opposition uh move uh to replace uh this government, whatever the results, uh will be Avigdur Lieberman. And his Israel Beitano Party. Uh he um there was the old kind of Soviet foreign minister, Dr. Nit, Dr. or Mr. Mr. Nit, Mr. No. So Lieberman has said no, no to Bibi Netanyahu, no to the Harides, no to the Arabs, obviously, uh, and no, critically to a minority government led by Gad Yazenkot, even a transitional minority government, right? You kind of seat one just to get rid of the current government and then see what happens. So he said no to everything. He still believes, I mean, hopefully he's right, but he still believes that the opposition, the four Zionist Jewish parties, can just get 61 seats outright, a absolute majority. Uh no, none no poll has shown that. Uh so again, what is Lieberman playing at uh after Tuesday? Who wants to go first? It's a you know, it's a big question.

Michael 58:17

I'll go first. So, what's Lieberman playing at? Also, by the way, he has said no to Gadi Eisencoat or hasn't said yes to Gatti Eisencote as prime minister, right? So um listen, as we know, Lieberman is the ultimate wild card. He's the guy who set all of this off in 2019 by going back on his decade of sitting with Bibi Nitsanyaho and with Kharedi parties and saying he was no longer willing to do that. What's he playing at? Uh I think what he's playing at is he wants to be prime minister. And so he's saying no to all these things now. And he's hoping that after next Tuesday, the four parties in the opposition block will be at 56, 57, 58, that a government with Rotom will put them over the top. He will say, Well, I said I won't sit with ours, but I'll tell you what, make me prime minister, and that will override my objection.

Neri 59:12

I think that's I think that's people gonna pull a Naftali Bennett where back in 2021 with six seats, he demanded to be prime minister.

Michael 59:21

I think, I think that's exactly what he's what he what he wants to do. Now, whether he'll be successful or not is a is a separate story. And if he isn't, if he's really then willing to say, all right, let's roll the dice with another election, and Bibi Nissanyao continues as prime minister under a transitional government, I don't know the answer to that question at all. But I think I think he is making a play for prime minister, which is why he's ruling all of these things out so that he can later take them off the table in return for somebody making him prime minister. That's what I think he's up to.

Neri 59:51

Before we get to Share, what do you think the results will actually be next Tuesday? And what what will that actually mean, right? I mean, you alluded to it, but like the coalition negotiations, all the fun stuff after Election Day.

Michael 1:00:05

I'm pretty confident in saying that neither side is going to have an outright majority. And certainly certainly not the coalition block and certainly not the four Jewish opposition parties. If you add Rotham to the opposition, maybe they'll be at 61. Again, that'll depend on the smaller parties and the threshold as we've discussed. So I think we're probably looking at some form of initial deadlock, and whether and how it gets broken will depend on really where the co the opposition parties are. You know, there's a huge difference between 52-53 and 56-57, because forming a government, whether it's a real government or a minority government with Ra'am, is just a different kettle of fish than relying on the joint list. And I think that to rely on the joint list, even just to support a minority government, that may be a bridge too far for folks in the opposition.

Neri 1:01:02

I don't think anyone's um thinking of the joint list. Um but I think maybe the hope is, like you said, Michael, that there is a gap and that the Jewish dynast parties have whatever, 56, 57, and that maybe Hendel and Zaliha get in, but not Vinter. So maybe Lieberman is hoping that he can use Hendel and Zaliha to get like a proper absolute majority, even though you don't really need it. Um, and then you know the Arabs will be this kind of safety net from the outside. Uh don't ask, don't tell. I think that's maybe Lieberman's hope, because I don't even think he really believes they're gonna get to 61, kind of just the four, those four Jewish parties. Um but uh I want to hear from Shira. Shera, what do you think is gonna happen next week?

Shira 1:01:46

Oh, next week. I don't know. Just about Lieberman, I have no idea, but I I I agree with you that he uh he wants to be prime minister. He thinks, and he's probably right, he's more experienced than everyone else uh in that bunch, right? In terms of ministerial experience, political experience. He's a shrewd politician. What he's saying, he's been saying a bunch of things, including that Jordan would uh run the Palestinian lives. Like I they I think you know he believe knows we're not in 1989 and that the this ancient plan is no longer viable. I think he says a lot of things now that are just meant to get like right-wing votes. What I don't know what he's saying, but he wants to be prime minister, and whether it happens now or no, and if he pulls a Bennett or no, if Winter comes to him or no, you know, I I'm not sure how the way he thinks there, but there's it's clearly his objective. Um he's been thinking this way for a while now.

Neri 1:02:41

So uh I'm gonna press you on a prediction in just a second, Shira. I'm gonna uh disagree with both of you. I don't think anyone after the Bennett experience from a few years ago will will want to take on the mantle of Prime Minister with such a small public mandate. You know, single-digit seats, someone, you know, one, if not two other parties ahead of him uh in the polls. I think Israel has tried that and it it didn't work out very well. Um again, never say never it's Israeli politics, but I I don't think that Lieberman is is angling for that. I think he's putting all of this out there to increase uh basically his appeal for right-wing voters, number one. Number two, he's saying all of this to increase his leverage, like you were saying, after Election Day. But number three, I think more critically, he's decreasing the leverage that he thinks Eisencott may have and trying to eliminate the possibility of uh Eisencott BB unity government after election day. In other words, he doesn't want Eisencott to go to BB after the election and whatever, no clear result, and say, well, if you don't give me the first rotation, if you don't let me be prime minister first in a unity government, then I'll just gonna go and cede a minority government. When you have Lieberman coming and say and telling him, you know, you don't have that option, then what Eisencott's gonna agree to let BB go first? Um so I think he it's a leverage play, but it's a leverage play against Eisencott. Because I don't think Lieberman trusts Eisencott to not pull up any guns um and maybe cut a deal with BB, um which uh, as you mentioned, is uh and Tal Schneider mentioned, I think, last week, uh which which I kind of you know, she by the way, we recorded that episode before the report started coming out that Herzog, the president here, was going to try to promote this idea of a unity government after election day. Um again, just look at where Benny Gantz is right now politically, and that's that's what happens when you when you cut a deal with Bibi Netanyahu. So again, um I'm not saying Isencott would even consider uh doing that, but I'm not not saying that Lieberman doesn't believe that Eisencott may consider it, if you know if that's his only option.

Michael 1:04:42

Neri, the one distinction between then and now, in terms of Bennett with his six seats and Lieberman with however many he'll get, Bennett won his seats on the backs of voters who expected him to join a right-wing government with Netanyahu. Lieberman's voters are not expecting him to do that. So I so I I take your point about you know the Natali Bennett experience being very rocky given that he was the smallest party in that coalition, not including Rahm. But I think that a lot of that rockiness and we saw because he literally had, you know, Amichai Shikli defect even before the government was formed. Um, I think that partially it's because they didn't expect him to actually even go with that side of the political aisle. Whereas this time, you know, Lieberman's voters know what they're voting for.

Neri 1:05:28

Fair enough. Um, you know, uh I'm still I'm still looking at Shira here for for her prediction.

Shira 1:05:36

Prediction. Um I am whatever, who cares? I'm gonna be I'm gonna be very optimistic. I think that first of all, I don't think Vinter and Zleika are gonna Zlicha handle Willf are gonna pass. Um I think there's gonna be the opposition is gonna fare uh better than what we're seeing now. I think they're gonna have higher than uh 55, 56, and then I think they can uh do a lot with the Arabs again, starting right away in the Knesset, replacing obviously the chair of the Knesset, right? Passing laws. They can they can start doing things very, very quickly. Um, in the Knesset's a parliamentary system, right? So it's a very different thing. I uh it's not gonna bring a stable government. We might be heading towards election anymore. It is there are different, you know, issues that go beyond what happens on that day and the count of the votes, right? I am pretty sure uh this, you know, we're in we could be in a January 6th situation, right? There's gonna be, I don't, I don't think uh this opposition, the coalition has gonna say, okay, we accept the the voters' uh word and you come to us for for like uh you know, we'll here are all the files and come to us if you have any questions. We're stepping out. I just don't don't see that happen. There's all, you know, we haven't spoken about it, but there's a lot of activity. Fox News just reports another aircraft carrier going to the Gulf. Hags that beat Hags at the same time yesterday. Could there be um uh another attack on Iran either before the elections or uh uh right after the elections in a way that could be changed the whole balance and push for this unity government that doesn't look very likely at the moment, but could be pushed under, you know, this sort of threat of scenario. So a lot of things can happen. But I think in terms of the performance and actual people going to vote, today I'm I'm I'm optimistic that uh the Israelis, uh for the most part, even those on the right, have had enough, and the traditional liquid voters uh who will will get like physically ill if they vote something else may stay may stay home. Or because because this is really not a political question. Many of the questions here have nothing to do with left and right and your political views, right? They're about this idea of institutions and the rule of law and democracy and just not going down to the basic the suit, you know, the calling Letanyah, I didn't call it an ape and a Moroccan ape. I mean, it just it's it's we got to such a level that I think a lot of uh people who voted for this coalition before are don't feel comfortable being uh associated with anymore. So that's what I hope. But as you know, it sounds better in Hebrew. I think it sounds better in Hebrew, but in the Middle East, uh prophecy was given to the fools. So I think it's the fools.

Neri 1:08:40

I like your optimism though, Sheera. And yes, the two big wild cards I think are what happens if Netanyahu and the coup don't recognize the results and refuse to either vacate the uh the post of a speaker of Knesset or tell their supporters to go out in the streets. Um then you're looking at a potential constitutional crisis, obviously. And uh the second wild card um more real, I think, than people want uh to believe. Uh renewed war with uh with Iran, uh maybe not uh before the Israeli election, but possibly after the US midterms, which is just a week after uh the Israeli election. So uh again remains to be seen and remains on uh the decisions of I think one one Donald Trump. Um predictions. I look, I was I wanted to elegantly uh avoid uh avoid having to to proffer a prediction. I uh I think the polls will be roughly accurate. Um I think it'll be a slight, just a slight um majority, not an absolute majority, but slight advantage for the opposition parties. And then the real action will will begin um trying to cobble together some some kind of coalition, whether a minority government or or otherwise. Um but I don't, again, based on kind of my reporting and my and my gut feel, I don't I don't think there's gonna be this kind of you know blue, blue wave or whatever color you want to call it, you know, this blue opposition wave sweeping over. I don't I don't feel that, unfortunately. So uh I think it'll uh come down not to election day, but to the weeks after election day when they're gonna have to negotiate and figure out a way forward. And I think critically, number one, um find a solution and replace this government for however long they can and not allow BB to roll the dice on another election. Uh and then number two, uh to uh well not to go into unity government with BB because uh that won't hold either. And then you're just gonna find yourself in another election in a worse position politically and publicly, whatever, three, four months down the line, or six months down the line, whatever it might be. So I think um I think that's what we're gonna look at what Tuesday night, Wednesday morning, more more likely, the days after. Um but again, we'll be a lot smarter.

Remembering Aziz Alghashian

Neri 1:11:01

Uh final issue I wanted to raise, uh very sad news um that we're gonna close with. Uh our dear mutual friend Aziz Al-Gashiyan uh tragically passed away uh this past weekend in Saudi Arabia. Uh Aziz was a friend of this podcast, as I'm sure our audience remembers. Uh, he came on a few times in the past and was just uh terrific on the whole issue of Saudi and uh Saudi Israel normalization. Uh he was a close friend to IPF in general as well, uh, and really just based on the outpouring of remembrances uh all across social media and Twitter uh since the weekend, was a dear and close friend to many people uh all across the world. All across the world. And and that's not an understatement, um, really from all corners coming out and remembering a very uh special human, a great analyst, but a very special human for those uh who were lucky to to have known him. Um and it's fair to say we were all very shocked uh on Sunday when we when we heard the news. Um Michael, uh what uh what will you remember of Aziz and what what would you like to say?

Michael 1:12:11

Yeah, uh Aziz was he was a friend of the pod, a friend of IPF, but he was also a personal friend of all three of all three of us. And um the the the IPF DC team had had lunch with Aziz in in DC um less than three weeks ago. And so you know this news that that he passed away was just uh it was a gut punch. And you know, what I'll remember about Aziz, first of all, uh and I think this is probably the first thing that everybody says about Aziz, he always had a giant smile on his face. He always had a joke or a quip, and they were always personalized, right? He he like he had he had private jokes with uh I think every single person that he that he knew and that he met. And um he was just such uh friendly, gregarious, happy spirit, and really like what one of one of the one of just the one of the befriendliest, most optimistic people I've ever met. And he was special in that he genuinely wanted to make change in the world. He really didn't care who he had to piss off to do it. He spoke his mind. This is this is a a Saudi who wrote his dissertation on Saudi Israel relations and wanted to become, and maybe was the leading expert on the Arab side on Saudi Israel relations. And and he did this all well before there was even talk of Saudi Israel liberalization. This was this was pre-Abraham Accords. This was kind of pre-all of it. He really wanted to engage with people, he really wanted to learn about the world. He and and it wasn't just in a dispassionate way. He genuinely wanted to be a bridge builder who would make the region and the world a better place. He was willing to associate, as a Saudi, living in Saudi Arabia, with an organization called Israel Policy Forum. He was willing to come here to the United States and speak, speak from the bemote of synagogues. Uh he was just a special guy. And um he was he was a special analyst, he was a special person, and I'm really genuinely going to miss my conversations, my texts, my calls, my zooms. Um he really he his his death leaves a big hole.

Shira 1:14:39

I mean, I'm I'm still shocked and devastated. I can't believe you know we were even talking about him in past time. I've known him for like all of you, I think, for a really good number of years. I've worked together, I've written together, I've spoken together many times. Um he was the one who I remember when we were there when he said coined the term Saudi splaining. We're at a conference in Europe, and someone was just saying, Well, the Saudis does it and he said, you know, this is Saudi splaining. And um he was really smart and sharp and honest, and he would go and not just Jewish media right also with Israelis, and he wrote things, but you know, in Israel, there's always like the token Saudis that says no, we love you, or the Arabs that say, you know, there's always like getting the token Arab that says no, it's okay, and we really don't care about the Palestinians and keep doing what we're doing, and everything won't be okay. He wasn't that, he was candid and and honest, and you know, his analysis was right, but he didn't mind speaking truth to power uh to anyone. Um, but he was also, I mean, except for his professionalism and his writing and his eloquency, and he spoke a lot about like the Mecca chords now and about the Houthi attacks, right? His expertise was really broad. It wasn't just like this niche Israel thing, even though he did start studying, he was studying Hebrew. Uh but but but it wasn't just that. Uh, and by the way, an avid religious Muslim, right? He grew up in a very religious house, and you know, he of course doesn't drink very religious, but he he wanted to really uh get to know the neighbors. Um he was just a really smart uh analyst on anything, uh, golf, and he knew Washington very well, which because he grew up there, so there was now like really a broad range of expertise. But I think you know, the fact that everyone loved him so much, he was so funny. Like you would crack laughing. He had his thing where he could impersonate uh people, he would do the best like voices and sounds and his face mimicry, right? This lampoon thing. He would just like, and anyone, you know, would talk, and then he would come and was like, Who are you? Why are you not in theater? Um, he was just hilarious and funny and warm, and he loved food, and we had this special bond over two things we both love, which is boxing. He used to box a lot, so we talk about boxing, but even more than that, gummies, we would go to these candy stores and outrageously buy all the gummies in the world and just like eat them, and it's disgusting. And I remember last time we were like, I think it was like a 90 euro you know bag of gummies, and obviously he was like he needed the halal ones, the vegan ones, because so this was a big thing like who eats the frogs and who eats the snakes. But I mean, I gotta tell you that the sugar poisoning I got with disease and something I'm gonna really miss. And I hope is I wish we could be there for the funeral and morning and see his family and tell them what a wonderful son and brother he was. I'm sure they know, but how he how loved he was all over the world. And it's really sad. You know, may rest in peace.

Neri 1:17:56

Very, very sad. Um he'll be dearly missed by many, many people, um, as you both alluded to, and uh, but his his memory will live on. And uh hopefully it'll be uh a blessing in Alairahmo, uh, our brother Aziz. Um and with that we'll we'll close uh for now. Um and uh we'll see what happens here in Israel next week. Thank you, Shira. Thank you, Michael.

Thanks, Contact Info, And Closing

Neri 1:18:23

Okay, thanks again to Michael Kopla and Shira Efron for their generous time and insights. Also, a special thanks to our producer, Jacob Gilman, and our editor, Tracy Levy, as always, and to all of you who support Israel Policy Forum's work. Just a reminder, you can email us with any feedback or questions at policypod at ipforum.org. That's policypod at ipforum.org. And do consider making a donation to Israel Policy Forum, certainly being a credible source of analysis and ideas on issues such as these that we all care deeply about, including this podcast. And most importantly, thank you for listening. Please, please subscribe and spread the word. And good luck, Israel. We're gonna need it.