Israel Policy Pod
A weekly podcast that goes beyond the headlines to bring you analysis from Israel Policy Forum experts and distinguished guests.
Israel Policy Pod
Eisenkot’s Paths to Unseating Bibi
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Israel Policy Forum Policy Advisor and Tel Aviv-based journalist Neri Zilber hosts Eli Kowaz, a Middle East analyst and writer of The Middle Ground and senior policy director at ECF, to unpack the opening session of Israel’s new Knesset and the ongoing struggle to form a government. They discuss Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s divisive and inflammatory speech, the Gadi Eisenkot-led opposition’s efforts to take control of parliamentary proceedings and begin passing legislation, and the Change bloc’s possible paths to a coalition. They also examine the obstacles posed by Avigdor Lieberman and what it will take for the opposition to translate its parliamentary strength into a new government.
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Opening And Week’s Big Risks
NeriShalom and welcome to the Israel Policy Pod. I'm Neri Zilber, a journalist based in Tel Aviv and a policy advisor to Israel Policy Forum. Well, there's a new Knesset in Israel, but not a new government. At least not yet. To help me work out the latest state of play in this complicated post-election landscape, I'm delighted to have on with me Eli Koaz, a Middle East analyst and writer based in Tel Aviv, and a senior policy director at the Economic Cooperation Foundation, otherwise known as ECF. Eli also publishes The Middle Ground, a newsletter on Israeli politics, U.S. Israel relations, and the fractures inside the Jewish world, but I obviously buried the lead. He was, in the past, the longtime communications director here at Israel Policy Forum. He's part of the Meshbucha, as they say, and was the first ever host of the Israel Policy Pod. True story. Eli and I got into the highs and lows, there were definitely lows, of Tuesday's ceremonial swearing in of the new Knesset, the start of Gaidia Eisencott's six-week mandate to negotiate a new coalition government, and the current headspace of one, Bibi Netanyahu, plus a whole lot more. But before we get to Eli, let's do a quick reporter's notebook where I take you behind the scenes and on the ground into the stories that are shaping current events and the big policy moves here in Israel and beyond. So in last week's episode with Michael Koplow and Shira Efron, I only half joked that by this time, this week, we could be in a post-election constitutional crisis here in Israel, with possibly a January 6 style insurrection at the Knesset and in a renewed war with Iran to boot. Never say we're not full of good news and sunshine and optimism on this podcast. But all kidding aside, these weren't things that were out of the realm of possibility. Far from it. I meant what I said. But I'm happy to report that so far, or I stress that so far at least, none of those negative scenarios have come to pass, which is obviously all for the good and yes, very positive.
Iran Tensions And Trump’s Signals
NeriSo first Iran, the threat of renewed US-Israeli strikes, I believe was very real, serious, and people were taking it seriously. Just based on Donald Trump signalling that after the US midterms, all bats would be off. In Israel, here, safe rooms, Mahmadi as are called, and go bags were being prepared. Some spouses and families of foreign diplomats actually left the country. And you could hear the Israeli Air Force above us training for days. But as we all know, uh Trump in recent days has made clear publicly that he's in no rush and that renewed strikes were highly unlikely and maybe not even necessary. Obviously, the results of the midterms may have had an effect on Donald Trump's thinking, but also the ongoing diplomatic efforts by Qatar and others to broker a deal between the US and Iran may also be, if not making progress, at least leaving the possibility open of a diplomatic resolution. The US President can uh of course change his mind, uh he often does, but for now the blockade around Iran and ongoing talks seem to be his preferred option. Much to the chagrin of one Bibi Netanyahu, who very clearly wants another round with Iran. And soon, and soon. But not many others across the region share that sentiment to say the least.
Stop The Steal Claims Lose Steam
NeriSecond uh is the entire uh post-election crisis here in Israel surrounding the Netanyahu government's allegations that the election was stolen by widespread vote buy and fraud on the part of Israel's Arab citizens. Let's be clear, uh, the government hasn't given up on this campaign, which is uh let's also be clear based on nothing but lies and distortions about the institutions of the Israeli state, uh the Central Elections Committee, the Attorney General, elements, senior elements with within the police in Shinbet, have all come out now and said the investigation has produced not a nothing. No real evidence of fraud and definitely not a stolen election. Many of us are, I think, were rightfully worried that Enyawa's and his ministers would choose to escalate things aside from some lip service for the quote serious need to investigate further. Uh they haven't so far escalated uh and pressed the issue or emphasis on so far. Uh and again, that's all for the good. Uh the Likud and other coalition members showed up to the president's residence last week for the customary post-election consultations. They showed up yesterday on Tuesday for the opening session of Knesset and they took their oaths. And even the speaker of the Knesset, Amir O'Hara, from BB's Likud party, will in theory allow his replacement early next week by the opposition to take place. Even a right-wing stop the steal protest yesterday afternoon outside the Knesset only attracted about 200 people. Upset as one world leader, would likely upset. So again, that's all positive, and uh this all wasn't a given as recently as just a few days ago. And we have to be clear the threats are still there, and BB could still escalate on all the fronts. But for now, Trump is keeping him in check. Israel's democratic order is keeping him in check, and Israel lives to fight another day. For another week, at least. With that, let's get to Eli Collas.
Eli Kallus Joins The Conversation
NeriHi, Eli. This feels strange to say, but welcome back to Israel Policy Pod.
SPEAKER_04Wow, Neri, thank you for having me. It's been a while. Great to be back. Great to be with you as the as the host.
NeriYeah, uh, I'm returning the favor a few years overdue, and by a few years, probably about six or seven. Uh, since, as I mentioned at the top, you were the original host of Israel Policy Pod and had me on a few times as a guest. So now you are the guest, Eli. And we're going to be talking Israeli politics, post-election politics, the best and worst kind. Um, just for our audience, uh fair to say you're one of the keenest watchers of Israeli politics out there, uh, especially for all of you on the social medias. Uh, Eli is very sharp, very quick, and tracks everything, fair to say, no?
SPEAKER_04Uh I try. I try. I miss some things here and there, but you know, I try, especially in election and coalition formation season, which we're in the heart of right now. So I try to be on top of things.
NeriOh, we are, and we're going to get
New Knesset Ceremony And Flashpoints
Neriinto all of it. But I want to start here, Eli, uh, with yesterday's ceremonial opening session of the new Knesset. There were definitely highs, there were definitely lows. Uh, there's a lot of yelling uh naturally. But we're now officially up and running with the 26th Knesset. So your initial thoughts, Eli, about yesterday's events up in Jerusalem.
SPEAKER_04Well, it was quite the day yesterday, also quite the day today. But you know, let's talk about yesterday because we had that very iconic Netanyahu speech.
NeriOh, we'll get we'll get to that.
SPEAKER_04We'll get to the speech. Okay, we'll get to the speech. But so, you know, uh yesterday there were 120 Knesset members sworn in, um, a lot of new Knesset members. I believe the majority were actually either new or returning from previous Knessets, and it it was an exciting day, but it was also a day that was very, very heated with lots of drama. Um, and we can get into that drama too. You know, we had we had a little debate or a yelling match between Naftali Bennett and Vivi Netanyahu during Netanyahu's speech that we got Sar Netanyahu involved. You had like Gadi Eisenquote sitting like in between them, like keeping his cool. Like it was it was kind of impressive looking Gadi Eisenquote there, just completely like cold face in between you know Naftali Bennett and Sar Netanyahu yelling at each other. I think there's there's some history. Uh there's some history there. Um, you had, you know, like Year Golan walking out of that the speech. But I think um overall it was um, you know, it was a good day for Israeli democracy, but you know, it I think it also revealed a lot of the unopened and unanswered questions we have about where these coalition negotiations are headed, where this Knesset is headed, how long will this Knesset last? I think after watching yesterday's events, all those questions have even more meaning and importance.
NeriAbsolutely. And uh those are all very good questions. I don't think anybody has very good answers. Um BB speech, definitely we'll tackle in in depth in just a moment, uh, separately, definitely uh was the highlight and the low light. But I think for my money, I was expecting the worst yesterday. Uh we didn't quite know how the outgoing government's MKs would respond, uh, whether they would actually be there. They all showed up, they all took their oath. Uh Amir O'Khanna, the speaker, soon to be outgoing speaker, did uh use his opportunity to use his speech to uh to denigrate the Arab MKs. But overall, uh other other than that, I suppose handled it quite quite okay. And you also had a minor kerfuffle uh during the Hatikvah, right? When uh some of the Arab MKs from the joint list, I believe, walked out, and Ben, Itamar Ben Gvir, National Security Minister, yelled at them. Uh that definitely caught a lot of attention and didn't do the Arab MKs uh you know much much credit, especially in the eyes even of the opposition. Uh Vigder Lieberman, who we'll also definitely get into in in a moment, tweeted almost immediately afterwards this is why we can't go into a coalition with the Arab MKs.
SPEAKER_04With these people, do you want to you know form a coalition? That's what he that's what he posted.
NeriYeah, that's what he tweeted. So I think that's uh overall what we looked at yesterday. So again, could have been worse, much worse, could have been better. But everything was, I suppose, moving along somewhat okay until Bibi Netanyahu's speech.
SPEAKER_04I think that's right. And you know, in um when the Knesset is sworn in, each of the 120 Knesset members, they say in Hebrew, like Mitchayevani or Mitchaevitani, which literally which means like I commit, I pledge. And you mentioned like Benvir. So when Youssef Jabareen, the head of the joint list, said Mitchaevani, he yelled at an interrupted, to who? To who are you allegiant? Like to where is your allegiance? Is it to Hamas? Um, so we had that moment, which I think was very indicative of the climate in Israeli politics today. And like you said, we had the Hatikfa moment where on the one hand you had the joint list members walking out, but on the other hand, you had pictures of Mansur Abbas and the Ram members. I don't know if they were, I don't think they were singing Hatikfa. They were standing respect. No, I don't think they were singing it, but they did stand respectfully and shows you know a difference here, right? We have, uh we'll talk about it more, but we have one part of we have the Netanyahu coalition trying to brand all the Arab parties as illegitimate, but here was a very good and clear presentation of that not both these Arab parties are the same, and that there's a big difference between them and between their approaches. And I think it was indicative uh in that moment.
NeriThat's a very good point. Uh obviously the joint list is uh amalgamation of three small Arab-Israeli factions. They have 11 seats, Rahm has uh eight seats, that's the Arab Israeli Islamist Party, uh was part of the previous uh change government back in 2021-2022, led by Nafali Benet and Yar Lapid, so much more moderate, uh looking to actively join uh a governing coalition
Netanyahu’s Speech Targets Arab Parties
Nerihere in Israel. Without further ado, Eli, Bibi Netanyahu, so after all the uh pomp and circumstance, the swearing in of all the 120 MKs, there is traditionally uh a toast that's held not in the Knesset plenum, but uh outside down below in the Shagal Hall. Uh all the MKs are present, their families are there. It's supposed to be a festive uh and very ceremonial occasion. Uh and again, uh by tradition, the the outgoing Prime Minister or the caretaker prime minister gives a speech. Uh Bibi Netanyahu used a speech yesterday on Tuesday to spend 21 minutes talking about uh uh the existential dangers facing Israel still uh even after he prosecuted three years of war and declared total victory uh probably half a dozen times, and uh more to the point, used most of his twenty-one minutes uh uh to talk about uh the uh threat uh uh from the Arab-Israeli uh political parties and representatives to the Jewish people, uh to the Jewish state. Um it went on and on. He was quoting various Arab MKs, you know, quotes from 10, 15, 20 years ago. It just went on and on. Uh I'll spare everybody all the details, uh, but it was just pure incitement, uh very clear that he's trying to delegitimize any use of them in any future opposition-led coalition. At some point, as you mentioned, Naftali Benet, the former prime minister, he was sitting there kind of arms crossed, just looking as at the speech, appalled. And at a certain point he he broke and started yelling at Bibi Netanyahu. Uh what about uh State Commission of Inquiry for October 7th yelled? What about your Bibi's Qatari aides, or well, aides that were getting money from Qatar uh to uh major scandals? Um and like you said, Ben Gvir got involved, Saratanyahu got involved. Eisencott, what did he call it? He called it delusional, divisive, hate-filled, shameful. That's what he termed the speech. I I mean there have been many firsts in Israeli politics, especially in recent years. Many firsts. Uh nobody's had ever seen anything like this.
SPEAKER_04No. And one thing that you left out, and understandably, is that in the speech he also called for a unity government, right? Which is like the most absurd part. Like, how could a speech that divisive divisive call be calling be a call for a unity government? And this was a change of tone for Netanyahu, who for the weeks or the week and a half, two weeks after the election was adamant that there would be no no unity government. And then he kind of changed his tune when he realized that Aisemkot had the 67 recommendations, and then he posted a video, you know, I think it was the day before, where he called for a unity government, but under his leadership, with all of his coalition partners involved, including the Ultra Orthodox parties. So not really a unity government when how we think of a unity um government. So that was, you know, that was one thing that I found that that I found just absurd that that was how he presented this unity. And the other thing that came to my mind is, you know, this is almost a campaign speech. And why do I say that? Because I think that Netanyahu is, and we will talk about this later, but I think Netanyahu is eyeing another election. And I think that delegitimizing any cooperation with the Arab parties will be very, a very important part of a next election campaign if he is involved in one. And I and you know, when Naftali Bennett interrupted him to talk about October 7th, a commission of inquiry, why did he pick that moment? It was because Netanyahu was talking about investigating the stolen election by the Arab parties, by, you know, by foreign actors, etc. And so the point was, you know, you you want to investigate this, but you didn't want to investigate October 7th. Um, so I think that was very notable, um, notable for me. And at the same time, I think, you know, it goes back to just, and then Ben Veer was connected, you know, what Ben Veer did as well. It's just part of what the former coalition slash former government is is trying to do, which is this big delegitimization campaign of over 20% of Israelis, of Arab Israelis who voted in unprecedented numbers and achieved the best result for Arab parties as well. I think most people were surprised by the turnout, and it's not something that was expected. So everyone is dealing with it in a different way. And also in the change block, you know, like uh Vigdor Lieberman, we should like it's to talk about also how he is pushing away um the Arab parties, um, at least publicly, and in every statement that he's released, he's pushing them away, even though we saw him uh uh report that Mansur Abbas is close to um, very close, if not in agreement with the four uh terms Ghazi Ghadia Zinkot set out for joining a uh a government, a coalition. And the fourth um most contentious item on that list is the recognition of Hamas as a terror organization, which apparently Mansur Abbas is willing to do. So overall, those are my initial initial thoughts about that that speech and what it meant.
NeriYeah. The four conditions as it got set out even during the campaign were number one, uh recognizing Israel as a Jewish and democratic state. Uh number two, uh upholding the values of the Declaration of Independence. Uh, number three is uh service for all, whether military, national, civil. And then number four, late to the game, but yes, um the removal of Hamas from the Gaza Strip, uh disarming of the organization, and I guess saying the words that it's a terrorist organization.
SPEAKER_04Right, right. You know, and you know, and and that ties directly with the amount of times we hear Netanyahu and Netanyahu supporters and Netanyahu's coalition partners label the Arab MKs as terror supporters. Tom Khai Tirol. We hear it again and again and again. If you watch follow Israeli media, it's almost like it gets like stuck in your it gets stuck in your head because you can't mention an Arab like Arab MKs without Tumchai Terol, without terror supporters. It's really they're trying to like, that's why to me it feels like a campaign almost. It feels like a campaign.
NeriIt's definitely a campaign. It started during the actual election campaign. We saw it every 15 minutes on election day, and then literally every day after election day uh for the past two weeks, really just a pure delegitimized coming. And Bibi gets up there and says, Well, I have nothing against Arab-Israeli citizens, of course. They also vote for Likud. I was like, okay, but how many actually vote? Sadly, yeah. And then he also said something which was, you know, nobody's looked out for the Arab citizens of Israel more than I have, more than my government, which is pure nonsense because under his government it's been a rough ride, especially over the past four years, especially under Benjamin.
SPEAKER_04Even Yosef Khad didn't agree to join Likud, you know.
NeriYeah, well Yosef Khadad is um is a different matter. But yes, uh it's it's all in the service of essentially trying to take away uh any path for the opposition for Gadia Aznat to use the Arab-Israeli political
Netanyahu’s Health And The Rumors
Neriparties. Um final question about Bibi. I'm not one for conspiracy theories, Eli, or internet rumors, but I have to ask the question. Bibi doesn't look good, does he? What do you think?
SPEAKER_04He doesn't. And you know, I I see all these rumors. I saw the video that I mentioned earlier. I saw a bunch of people like post AI detectors of it, 82%, whatever, AI. Like those, you know, I don't put much importance on those videos, but you know, I did see him like walking with Sarah and looking, you know, like almost it seemed like difficult for him to keep balance, etc. He kind of went disappeared after the election, right? We didn't see him in public for, I think, 12 days, 13 days. And he doesn't look, you know, he doesn't look great.
NeriYeah, that that part, that part I didn't have an issue with. I mean, he was kind of letting things settle. He was letting his mouthpieces do the talking for him. And and obviously he was he was at the Knesset yesterday physically, right? It wasn't hologram, it wasn't a hologram of VB Netanyahu. But like even in person, he he just like he looks gaunt, right? He looks not just skinnier. Not just skinnier.
SPEAKER_04He does. He can I mean he does. And you know, he can still, you know, he he he also, you know, he did um he said, uh, I mean, you know, I'm not gonna, you know, a lot of a lot of people, what was interesting was a lot of people criticized on Netanyahu supporters and Netanyahu, like, you know, that Channel 14 got the Eisencourt when he received the mandate from Herzog, he gave a speech. And last week. I'll agree. Or Sunday. On Sunday. Yes, exactly. And I'll agree that Gadi Eisencot is not, you know, he's not like Barack Obama, right? He's not this like incredible orator, or that's like, you know, he I think he's a very honest, genuine, smart, like true he speaks what he believes, politician, but he's not the most gifted public speaker. And so he took a sip of water during the speech. And then, you know, the pro-Netanyahu internet world, you know, I'm on social media a lot, went crazy. Like, how do you want this person to speak to Congress, to speak to the UN? I don't know if Netanyahu will be invited to Congress again, but that's a different matter. Whereas you have Netanyahu also, you know, Netanyahu is not looking great either. You know, Netanyahu was, he misspoke, he called like Meshutefrik Mishpachot, like, you know, like something that you like, it's like a very weird thing to like to mess up.
NeriIt's the difference between like basically meeting the joint list and meeting families, like uh exactly, exactly. Sustage families.
SPEAKER_05Yeah.
NeriYeah.
SPEAKER_04Bereef families. Tomato tomato.
SPEAKER_05Yeah.
SPEAKER_04But yeah, he seems like not that not well. And it's something that hasn't received a lot of attention in the campaign. I think part of it because of Netanyahu, for a lot of his supporters, he is almost this. This sounds weird, but he's almost, you know, like an immortal figure in a way. You know, he's almost like they see him as, you know, they sing, it's not David the Melchisrael, it's Bibi Melchisrael, Bibi the king of Israel. So, you know, yeah, they see him as really the king, like a king figure. So his health question anyone, anyone who questions his health is, you know, is like a bad faith actor who is just, you know, who has a it's not a legitimate question, even though, you know, in the United States, you know, presidents are usually, you know, they release their health records, etc. Whereas Netanyahu hasn't been like that at all.
NeriNo, and uh he was essentially what forced to release records or information about the fact that he underwent prostate cancer treatment late last year. So he is by definition a cancer survivor. And well uh again, we we don't know, but he he he looks diminished and he's not moving as well as he used to. And but like, you know, the the rhetoric is still there. He can still give a good speech, even though he f fumbles fumbles lines more than he used to.
SPEAKER_04Yeah, I agree, I agree with that.
ShanieTalking about Israel has gotten so hard. People are angry and dug into their positions, and most of the time it feels like the conversation is over before it even begins. But what if we kept talking? I'm Shitty Reichmann from Israel Policy Forum, and this is Disputed Territory, a podcast for real talk about Israel.
SPEAKER_06I don't find that shaming people work very well and getting them to listen to you. What I try to do is at least open up a space that people can listen. I also try to ask people questions to like push them to ask themselves to evaluate their own ideologies.
ShanieWe can believe that there needs to be an is a Jewish state and also work every day to make it better. And I see my work as really digging in there, trying to fix the hardest and most challenging parts of Israel. And it doesn't take away from that.
SPEAKER_03You can't call these things wrong, you can call these things uh unacceptable ones to et cetera, but not dehumanize it.
ShanieWe're going to talk about Zionism, the Israeli-Palestinine conflict, Jewish identity, the relationship between American Jews and Israel, and the questions that don't always have easy answers. You'll hear from people with different perspectives. Sometimes I'll agree with them and other times I won't. But that's the point.
SPEAKER_00When I criticize Antonio and Begin for and the settlement, and when I speak about a two-state solution, all of this is because of my love for the Jewish people.
SPEAKER_02I feel like my responsibility is to be a diaspora and to stay compassionate and to stay nuanced. Why that is so incredibly difficult in this moment, I don't know.
ShanieI believe the conversations about Israel don't have to drive us apart. They might actually be the only productive way forward. This is disputed territory, real talk about Israel. Follow along on Apple, YouTube, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts.
NeriAll
Mapping The Coalition Endgame Options
Neriright, Eli. And I laid out four and a half scenarios for what could happen moving forward. Since last week, for my account, we're up to six and a half scenarios. Uh is this progress, Eli? I have no idea. I have no idea, but but here but here we are. Uh and we're gonna go through them you know quicker than uh than we need to, but uh we're gonna get to like the real the real crux of the matter in just a moment. Uh so the half option, as I call it, uh as you know, we're already seeing in practice. So the opposition, as you said, has 67 seats. Uh they've taken over Knesset, parliamentary procedure. Uh they're likely to replace the Knesset speaker next week. Um, they're already kind of manning key committees and even kind of introducing laws and they want to cancel certain laws. So that's all all for the good, all nice to see, but they're moving ahead and uh they're kind of uh making it very public that they're moving ahead in Parliament in Knesset, but that does not give you a government. So that is the half option. What do you think of of their moves or declared moves so far? I mean, they want to set up a state commission of inquiry for October 7th. It's not a small thing.
SPEAKER_04Right. And I think there was some there was a question mark there about whether it's possible to do before swearing in a government, and I'm not sure it is, but I do think that that is, you know, an an effective way of using the majority that you have in terms of Nessa members. We also, you know, the option that maybe was canceled out was, you know, Isenkot was talking about an emergency government almost like immediately.
SPEAKER_05Yeah.
SPEAKER_04But but I think, you know, I think Lieberman combined with Ohana, you know, Ohana delaying him being replaced by you know taking the maximum amount of time, put that off the table. But so wait, the half option means that we go from here and then it just it fails.
NeriIt doesn't, it doesn't get you a government, but it's you're moving you're you're doing something.
SPEAKER_04You're doing something. And then eventually, you know, the mandate will go to uh to Nobody's about the R.
NeriAnd then, you know, like you said, if you don't form a government, then new elections.
SPEAKER_04So so you know, I I don't I yeah. So I actually I don't know, maybe it's like the optimistic part of me. I have like a Nimrod Novik optimism that that I don't know if you know if the listeners are familiar with the Nimrod Novik optimism, but if they are, I have, you know, he's or maybe he's uh it's it's contagious, at least with me, that I, you know, I I I don't think that that will happen. I think. Well continue with the with the option.
NeriOkay, yeah, yeah. I mean, you can give me my pr your prediction uh at the end. Uh and Nimrod Novik is um he's been on the podcast uh a number of times. He's uh IPF uh fellow here in Israel, former close aide to Shimon Paris, also um an eternal optimist in his day. So it's good to be optimistic, Eli. It's good, because what's the alternative? Won't get out of bed. So that's the half option. Then you have basically the the the first real option. So option number one, and then I'll combine it with option number two. So option number one, basically Netanyahu kind of attracts defectors from the opposition. And I think I deem that very uh very unlikely. And not only because BB Net has to make up eight seats, right? He and his kind of traditional block of parties only have fifty three. So uh that seems very unlikely. But the second option Unity government, which is at least uh uh publicly Netanyahu's now preferred or belated option, uh, but not really Unity, as you mentioned. So basically Netanyahu somehow convinces Isencott and maybe other elements in the opposition, and he brings in some elements of his current coalition and they form a unity government. I don't think this will be anybody's first option and maybe a last resort.
SPEAKER_04Right. No, I think that's right. I I think that the first uh, you know, that option, the first option you mentioned about the defectors, uh Netanyahu being able to pull defectors from the other block is very like virtually like not possible. Well because, like you said, of the math and also if you look at the people that he could pull people talk about, you know, three members of the Yeshar um of Ghadi Assembl's party, the uh Khili Topil uh group uh with Elisaf Peretz and uh Shira uh Shapira. But even if somehow they were to defect, and also they can't really defect just the three of them, it's kind of more complicated than that. Um I don't think he has a path to convince, uh, especially like today. I think that seems like very, very far-fetched. Even if a big door laborman wanted like he wants to pull a big door laborman back, that still only gets him to 60. Right. Um, so I think but but the unity option is I think more interesting and more possible. The question is, like you said, it's like what kind of unity is it? Um, the experience from Netanyahu Unity governments in the past is notoriously not good for the people that agree to join Netanyahu in Unity, whether it be uh Year Lapid, Calivmi, also, you know, President Bujie Herzog, who in 2016 thought about it. Thought about it. Also was, you know, he was, I think, you know, he was into into it, and then Netanyahu kind of used him to uh go with Lieberman and pass up on the regional like opportunity. And then you have the the the latest victim to Netanyahu's Unity ploy, you know, is uh unemployed now, Benny Gans, who, you know, I don't know if he's listening to Israel Policy Pod, but you know, he could tell you that you know, unity with Netanyahu, it it doesn't it doesn't lead you to good places. So it it depends on the terms of unity. And I think Gadi Eisencott is is different than Benny Gantz in that sense. And I think he would only go for unity if he saw it as there was a clear way to keep Netanyahu in check. Also, I it's hard for me to see him going for unity with Netanyahu being prime minister first, right? If at all. And so the question is, you know, will Netanyahu be flexible about that as well? And then there's the question of the coalition partners, right? I've heard, you know, on Israeli media people say that there's like a 33 and 33 on both sides where if you put Ben Zir out and then you put the Democrats out, and you have the Achad, um, you have Biachad. Which is Naftali Benet's right. You have Naftali Benet's party, and you have Yashar, and then on the other hand, you have uh Likud and uh the religious zionists in Smudric. But you know, I don't see Smudrich as a natural partner either in in that sort of government. But you know, that's something you know we have to see how things are you know moving. There's like a game of chess being played here in terms of the unity direction, but it you know, it seems to me that Netanyahu is doing everything to make unity not possible. I mean the Netanyahu family as a whole, right? I mean, when Netanyahu was giving that speech, the the hate speech where he called for unity as well, his son was uh, you know, was posting on X that you know, Asenkhod was like Gollum, right? Like we have uh, you know, it's it's just not that kind of the discourse, it doesn't seem at all that it's there. And you know, and that would be also, you know, the parties at the end that they're also looking at what their voters want and what they've they pro like the number one promise, right? There were a bunch of promises. We didn't promises some parties in the change block made promises not to sit with their parties, some made promises about you know the draft bill. But all of them made one promise, and that was to replace Netanyahu. All of them made that promise, right? Yeah, yeah.
NeriAnd also, like you said, BB in both his actions and rhetoric is pushing them away. Right. It's almost backfiring on him if he really has an intention of any kind of unity government. And uh Eisencott uh after the BB speech yesterday, um, added that uh the man is unfit to remain in office and a danger to Israel's security. So if you really believe that, how can you actually uh keep him as prime minister even in a unity government? Right, um or even a senior figure in any government if you actually believe that. But again, never say never these are uh Israeli politics. We'll see what happens.
Ultra-Orthodox Gambit And Lieberman’s Leverage
NeriOption number three, uh uh the actual real option number three, uh, and it's now uh the favored one, or at least according to Victor Lieberman since the end of last week, is uh an opposition government uh with at least one, if not two, of the ultra-Orthodox parties. So United Torah Judaism um is now actively flirting uh with the opposition, and vice versa. Um and UTJ, as it's called, has seven seats. So that would get give them at least a simple majority, even before any other kind of permutations. And as you as you said, he's ruled out a minority government with the Arabs, he's ruled out repeat elections, he's ruled out any kind of uh deal with Netanyahu, and he's actively pursuing uh a deal with the Ultra Orthodox, and he's saying that he uh is now willing to be flexible on what had been his flagship issue, which is uh drafting everyone, including the ultra-orthodox. Um and by the way, not just drafting them, but also kind of issues of religion and state, um, you know, very kind of liberal secular manifesto um had been a champion of that. So everyone here on this podcast knows I'm very skeptical, but what do you think of this like uh third option, which is I suppose what Lieberman would be willing to expect uh except maybe the only thing that Lieberman is willing to accept, at least for now. Right.
SPEAKER_04And I think uh the at least for now part is important. It is interesting because on paper, and you know, there was a a poll that was just released by JPPI, the Jewish People Policy Institute, um, where they asked Israelis what they prefer out of all the options. And change block with Haredi parties was by far the lowest. So 3% of the Israelis support that. Whereas the highest option on that poll was change block with the Arab parties. Um, and then close second was a Netanyahu, Isenkot, uh, Unity um government. So I think like there's a few things that I uh my first thought is that Lieberman would like the idea one of the ideas here is to explore the route with the ultra-orthodox to have like a fallback if it fail, you know, if if it fails and then eventually he does accept Ram in the coalition and goes to a minority government, which I think is a possibility, he'll say that look, I I I tried and it was not possible to reach. I think that I think that's one option. And then the other option is that they're really willing to give these like major, major compromises slash sacrifices, which at the same time is like a big betrayal of promises made during the election. If we think about like Bayachad's like Neftali Benetz party, um and uh issues of like the draft and universal uh universal draft and listing. By the way, this was term number three at Eisencott's four terms. Exactly. Exactly. And this is something that is would be very, very unpopular among change block voters, but at the same time, some of the change block voters would, you know, it's like just get BB out, like that's their priority, but others are not, you know, it's like more about like how and like how it's done. So I I am skeptical of this. Personally, like my and this is more my opinion, and that I that I think what's more important uh from the ultra-Orthodox communities in Israel is that they become part of Israel's like economy and the workforce. It's less about the IDF for me, because like I ideally you have a government that doesn't prolong wars for maybe, you know, maybe the military reasons, maybe political reasons, but ideally, you know, Israel's been most effective historically when they've fought like short, very specific, targeted wars, and then they've uh it's followed with you know political strategic moves. Um so I think if that's done, a lot of like the pressure on terms of IDF manpower would would change, but that's you know, I'm getting into a different conversation. But I do think I I share your skepticism, long story short.
NeriYes, um, remains to be seen. And by the way, I'm also very skeptical whether the Herodes will actually go all the way with the opposition.
SPEAKER_04Right, right, for sure.
NeriCould be a ruse. It could be you extract as much as you can, you pocket it, and you go back to BB.
SPEAKER_04Yes, for sure. It could be a ruse. I think like with UTJ, I do think that they would be more, you know, that they're they're not really part of the Netanyahu block in the same way that like chassis are. You know, I would say that they're, you know, quite openly a non-Zionist party. Um, at least like parts of the party are non-Zionist at all, and they're just asking, you know, for the the highest bidder who will give, you know, who will give me the benefits, um, more benefits, more budgets, etc. Like that, right?
NeriLook, this was a bombshell late last week when Avindor Lumman uh put out what he put out, and then he re-upped on it early this week. And then once again yesterday in the Knesset. He really thinks he can get a deal with the Herodes. But I don't know. There's nothing he he undercut Isencott's leverage, right? The Herodes have to believe that they really have a minority government option with the Arabs in order to at least be scared enough to go and find a workable deal, as opposed to just waiting for the opposition to you know Yeah, I agree.
SPEAKER_04To do to do like a end-of-year sale. Exactly. And you know, I think the ideal their ideal scenario is that I think ROM is also part of the coalition. I just think if it's a 61 plus coalition, they would feel better about it in terms of like how long it could last, and in terms of the the public like legitimacy, yeah, um, etc., despite the fact that it would be a caving into the ultra-orthodox.
NeriYeah. And also uh United Tory Judaism Judaism is not Shas. So it's remains to be seen whether Shas actually is willing to be as flexible with the opposition because it has very different type of voters. Um someone has told me though that uh apparently Shas rabbis, Sephardic rabbis, follow the orders and the guide of the Ashkenazi rabbis. There's still there's still a lot of um well, all discrimination, I suppose, in that world. Um it's a foreign world to me, but apparently it's a thing. So there's also kind of internal ultra-orthodox politics going on at the highest levels.
SPEAKER_04Yeah. And SHAS have lost, like they were the only party to actually, in terms of actual vote count, get less votes in this election. And they've lost, you know, some of a lot, like a good amount of their support to Bangvir, to Likud. And they're also in a state of not clear like where they go as a party forward. And so it's interesting if the change block could break the ultra-orthodox parties out of the Netanyahu block. It could be like the consequences could be interesting for Israeli politics as a whole.
NeriThat's exactly it. It could be like a big bang in Israeli politics, where you've essentially just undercut not just the Netanyahu bloc, but you've taken away his safety out of 19 years, which is the ultra-orthodox parties. And they used to be free agents. Exactly.
SPEAKER_04They used to be free agents, and we're talking about right, the two fastest growing segments in Israel's uh, you know, of in an Israeli uh society, the ultra-Orthodox and right, the air and the Arab parties, and and them really being the force that kind of if you ally with both of them, you can form a government, right? If we have the two, right, if we have the change block and right. That's what Netanyahu has been doing. Well, without the Arab parties, he right. Yeah, exactly.
Minority Government With Arab Support
NeriNo, well, uh, I mean, which brings us to uh option number four. I think it's both of our preferred options, which is the minority government route uh with the Arab-Israeli political parties. I think this was the initial preferred option and route for Gadi Isenkot and other parts of the opposition. Uh basically just like seat a government as quickly as possible. Uh Rom will vote actively in favor. So it gives you 56 seats versus 53 or the joint list abstains. And you could have a government tomorrow. And yet uh Lieberman came off uh jumped off the top rope and vetoed that uh that plan, at least for now, as we were just discussing. I mean, uh BB's trying to d delegitimize it. Lieberman for now is vetoing it. We don't know where Neff Dali Bennett is, but uh I mean, if you can't get a deal with the Herodes, you have to go down this route.
SPEAKER_04I I think so too. And you have to, you know, I think this is where Eisencoat would be trying to, you know, calling Lieberman's bluff. You go to a vote where you have you'll have you'll have six, you'll have, right, you'll have 60 votes to form the in to in favor of forming the government. Maybe you won't have 60 in the government, but then you you put a Vidor Lieberman with a choice. Is he going to be the seven seats that Netanyahu needs? He said that he will stop it.
NeriHe said he would actively vote against such a government.
SPEAKER_04He said that he would, but act, but saying you'll actively vote against it and being the one who kept Netanyahu in power and sent Israel back to elections. And this could be part of what people are reports are indicating of Lieberman trying to pull in of Talib Bennett, meaning use his seven seats to you and use his leverage as a sort of kingmaker to become prime minister. Um is he trying to do that? He said that he's not. He said that he's not interested in a rotation agreement. He said that he's behind Gadi Isaquat. But you know, we don't really know what's in Lieberman's. I mean, I don't know what's in Lieberman's head.
NeriMaybe you know what's in the No, it's it's the worst parlor game in Israel right now. What does the Viktor Lieberman want? Ostensibly, he wants to deal with the Herdys, which seemed insane a week ago.
SPEAKER_04Right. And is that guy is that even do his voters want that? His vote, like even his voters, even his voters, who are I would say they're the most hard line like hard line in the change block. Even a plurality of his voters prefer the route with an Arab, like with the Arab parties. Um, so that's why it is interesting. That's why that's why what I originally said about maybe this is a tactic to show that he tried another option before.
NeriThat's a charitable interpretation, and I agree. Um I mentioned it to someone over the weekend. I mean, basically, there's I think God has six weeks now, almost now five weeks after this week is over to try to form a government. Uh then BB will probably get the mandate, the second crack, and have four weeks. And then if he fails, which he doesn't have uh uh any path really, it could go back to the Knesset for a third crack or a third mandate, and you can get sixty one seats. And then someone if someone is able to garner 61 seats, then that person I believe has two weeks to form a government. Exactly.
SPEAKER_04That's yeah, exactly.
NeriSo this is this is the idea like uh the Game of Thrones uh of Igder Lieberman, you know, chaos is a ladder. So he'll try to get to that third crack or you know, uh whatever, like two months from now, and then see uh what he can or cannot accomplish. I don't know where he would get the 61 seats or signatures from, frankly. Uh, but maybe his price will go up for whatever concessions he's willing to make. Um, or this is my other kind of uh theory of the case. Uh Lieberman really, really wants Isencott to go into Unity government with Bibi. So basically Isencott, he'll force Isencott to go into uh Unity government with BB, as uh you mentioned, what happens to people that go into Unity governments with BB? They're done politically, right? You know, they they violated and betrayed their base. And Lieberman will be out. He didn't violate any any of his promises.
SPEAKER_04Well, I yeah, I yeah, I mean I've heard also people say that Lieberman is eyeing to be the Netanyahu replacement of the right, but you know, I don't see that. I don't see that. I think he's viewed by a lot of you know the right wing the same way that you know Bennett is, in the sense that he he turned his back on Netanyahu. And you know, for me, for for I mean maybe less than Bennett away, because it was recency bias too, and also just because of like how he did it. Um, you know, Bennett did it with like signing something on the TV screen and then went back, etc. But my point about Lieberman is I really do believe that above all things, Lieberman wants to be the one who ends Netanyahu's political career. I really think that is a personal grievance that Lieberman has with Netanyahu. So that's why I don't think that the imposing a unity government is something that he would, unless he is like clearly and he can become prime minister by it. You know, I don't know if he doesn't seem to me like the kind of guy that is just wants to be there to be prime minister for the sake of being prime minister for like, you know, for a for a two-year period with Netanyahu and nobody remembers what he did in those two years, etc. Um, I I I think that's less likely, but again, we don't know. It's an option. It's an option.
NeriIt's an option. We don't really know what's in his mind. He's not an idiot, far from it. So there is there is kind of a logic to this. Uh we just don't really know what it is at this point. And, you know, to kind of play uh the devil's advocate, Laborman's advocate here, he said publicly he doesn't believe that a minority government with the Arabs will hold and that it'll fall apart after whatever, X number of months. And then that Kanyahu would win 70 seats, he said. Right. BB will come back even stronger. Now again, prove it. Maybe this government will actually be quite effective.
SPEAKER_04That's the thing. Who who would bring down this government? If you think about the people in the government, it is in no one's interest, none of their like interests to really bring it up.
NeriBut you have people who say, okay, what happens if like certainly a war a war is the least of it because that's a real that that's led by the government, it's a cabinet issue. But the way it was put to me by someone a few days ago, what if there's a bill that comes up for a vote about kind of something having to do with the West Bank? You know, regulations, laws that you need to kind of re-up every every year. In theory, will the Arabs vote in favor of that?
SPEAKER_04Will they uh abstain? It's a legitimate question, but again, it goes back to what I mean, we've seen what the Arab parties have said, which is that the most important thing for their voters, right, is ending, you know, ending the tenure slash, ending the uh the Netanyahu government, making sure Ben Beer gets nowhere close to, you know, the w to to a ministry portfolio like he had, etc. So I mean it you're right, that it's a question. It's a question. It's a question. It's a question. It's a question.
NeriUh it's all uh, you know, uh as in life, uh especially in Israeli politics, it's a question of what your alternatives are. And I'll give you the last two uh options on our menu, options number five and six.
Repeat Elections And Final Takeaways
NeriI'll combine them together. So option number five, basically uh repeat elections. So nobody nobody's able to form a government, Isengott fails, BB fails, the cannons can't agree on anybody. We go to repeat elections, terrible outcome. BB stays caretaker prime minister at the head of a transitional government. And well, we'll see, you know, everyone rolls the dice in whatever the first quarter of 2027. Possible. I think this is it's a risk. Or that I mean, that would be it, that would probably be the the worst option out of all of this, probably. No, I think that Netanyahu gets defectors is the worst option. Yeah, it it is, but that's so unlikely. It's also not, yeah. It shouldn't have been the same. This one this one is staring us in the face.
SPEAKER_04Right. It is. Given given how complicated And you feel Netanyahu is already campaigning as part of this election campaign.
NeriThis is uh honestly Netanyahu is just playing for time, this is Netanyahu's preferred option. Option number six, which I heard about from someone a few days ago, intrigued me. Um it's a variation on the repeat election. So basically nobody is able to kind of get something uh solid done. And uh the opposition led by Gaya Isencot swear in a government in whatever form, right, based on maybe the four uh Zionist opposition parties. Uh they replace Netanyahu, Netanyahu is kicked out. Netanyahu and his government are kicked out, they're replaced. And then this Eisencott government triggers an immediate election. They serve for a day and then they disperse Knesset immediately and go to repeat elections. And the person I was speaking to a few days ago said, look, uh there's an advantage here. Uh number one, for the opposition, they don't nobody violates any core promises. Nobody has to stay with the Arabs, nobody has to kind of deal with the Herdis, right? And then number two, you go to repeat election, but BB is not prime minister. So we're all looking down the barrel at a repeat election in the first quarter of 2027. But it's the burden is on Bibi to get 61 seats to win outright, as opposed to the burden being on the opposition to have to get 61 seats. That's what I heard.
SPEAKER_04Interesting. I don't think I've I don't think I buy it unless there it was combined with a different kind of tactic, like which I don't think is likely, like passing Hokana Sham, like the NIT law. You can't do that. You can't do that retroactively with the case.
NeriYou can't use the law. It's be it's floated sometimes, but it's if this place had a constitution, it would be unconstitutional. You're trying to kind of change the rules of the game as you're in the middle of the game, where basically anybody under indictment is not allowed to run or be prime minister. But yeah, it's a question though.
SPEAKER_04The Supreme Court, the Supreme Court would would likely vote that uh vote that down. Um, but it you know, um I just I don't see that big of a benefit, you know, for in terms of like we look at the the concern with repeat elections or like in turn from the even though I don't think it's clear that Netanyahu would get to his 61, right? Because I think Arab voter turnout would be high.
NeriAnd I I think But you'd have the same you'd have the same problem you're facing now. You'd have the same problem.
SPEAKER_04Maybe the numbers would be a bit better for Netanyahu. He'd be a bit it would be easier for him to like he'd have to pull five seats, maybe. You know, but like but it but it's a question, and I maybe he you know he would waste less less votes if there's oh Felvinto doesn't run again, and like Endel doesn't run again, etc. Like I don't, but that could be split anyways. I you know, I I I think this is like uh less likely, but I you know a more likely scenario would be that I think a minority government would come together and then fall apart like quick fairly quickly because of one of the reasons that you um that that you raised.
NeriLike the this is this But you still need Lieberman to lift his V.
SPEAKER_04You still need Lieberman to so I think Lieberman lifting is probably more I think that's I think Lieberman is we're we're back to Lieberman, right? I think it's really he he's the key player here. And I I see him lifting as a not unlikely scenario and him changing his his approach here because I don't think he wants to be seen as the one that puts Netanyahu in a position to be re-elected with a majority. But that is my maybe it's my wishful thinking.
NeriI hope you're right. Uh Nimran Novik would be very happy uh and proud of your optimism. I know for a fact that he agrees with you. I remain skeptical. Um but we have to wait and see. I think this isn't gonna be a whatever happens, I don't think it's gonna be quick, right? I think this is gonna take time, a few weeks to play out, maybe two months, unfortunately. What about trying to peel off from the Likud? Do you think that's not possible? I mean, I think it's as likely as BB trying to peel off opposition figures. Yeah. Interesting. The Likud is a Likud, right? If everybody's already kind of.
SPEAKER_04And I mean, if we look at the this is another thing that I just wanted to mention. If we look at the Likud today, and you have like Tali Gottlib who's in who switched from uh Jewish power to Otsumaya Hudit to be Ben Vir's number two, and we had Al-Mog Cohen switch from Otsmayyahudit to uh to Likud. It's also very line in between them. It's just one, it's almost like one party in a sense. So that's also something to so that's why I'm saying there may be a few people in the Likud. I don't think it's the needed third of the Likud. But but I I think they're just they're not brave enough or not willing.
NeriI've heard opposition figures talk about defectors from Likud for years. For years, and it never happened, even in the worst, the depths of the judicial overhaul.
SPEAKER_04We saw what happened to good defector Gidon Sarr, who is now Wells. He's the new he's the new uh Minister of Interior.
NeriYes. Um and foreign minister. Anyways, sorry. In a caretaker transitional, maybe outgoing government. So I'm I was gonna make a comparison, but it's it's not um it's not appropriate, especially since it's already uh late on Wednesday night in Tel Aviv. Eli, thank you for staying up with me. My pleasure. Breaking it all down. My pleasure. I hope your experience as a guest on Israel Policy Pod was delightful. As as nice, as delightful as uh your experiences hosting. And that I I repay the favor. Without a doubt. Uh we'll do it again soon. Thanks, Gary.
Wrap Up And Listener Next Steps
NeriOkay, thanks again to Eli Coaz for his generous time and insights. Also a special thanks to our producer, Jacob Gilman, and our editor, Tracy Levy, as always, and to all of you who support Israel Policy Forum's work. Just a reminder, you can email us with any feedback or questions at policypod at ipforum.org. That's policypod at ipforum.org. And do consider making a donation to Israel Policy Forum so you can keep being a credible source of analysis and ideas on issues such as these that we all care deeply about, including this podcast. And most importantly, thank you for listening and please subscribe and spread the word.